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Diabetes, Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity Volume 15, 2022 - Issue
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ORIGINAL RESEARCH

Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Model for Predicting Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) in Midlife: A Cohort Study

Musa S IbrahimInstitute for Health Research, University of Bedfordshire, Putteridge Bury Luton, Bedfordshire, LU2 8LE, EnglandCorrespondence[email protected]
ORCID Iconhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3902-6895
ORCID Icon,
Dong PangInstitute for Health Research, University of Bedfordshire, Putteridge Bury Luton, Bedfordshire, LU2 8LE, England
,
Gurch RandhawaInstitute for Health Research, University of Bedfordshire, Putteridge Bury Luton, Bedfordshire, LU2 8LE, England
&
Yannis PappasInstitute for Health Research, University of Bedfordshire, Putteridge Bury Luton, Bedfordshire, LU2 8LE, EnglandORCID Iconhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3087-860X
ORCID Icon
Pages 1051-1075 | Published online: 06 Apr 2022

Figures & data

Table 1 Sample Characteristics

Table 2 Gender Differences in the Prevalence in the Individual Components of MetS

Table 3 Model 1 (MetS Prediction Model Consisting of Gender, Father’s Social Class at Birth and High Waist Circumference)

Table 4 Model 2 (MetS Prediction Model Consisting of Gender, Father’s Social Class at Birth, High Waist Circumference and HbA1c ≥6.0)

Table 5 Model 3 (MetS Prediction Model Consisting of Gender, Father’s Social Class at Birth, BMI at 7, HbA1c ≥6.0 and Low HDL-Cholesterol)

Table 6 Model 4 (MetS Prediction Model Consisting of Gender, Father’s Social Class at Birth, BMI at 7, HbA1c ≥6.0, Hypertension and Overcrowding)

Table 7 Model 5 (MetS Prediction Model Consisting of Gender, Father’s Social Class at Birth, BMI at 7, Hypertension and HDL-Cholesterol)

Table 8 Model 6 (MetS Prediction Model Consisting of Gender, Father’s Social Class at Birth, BMI at 7, HbA1c ≥6.0, Hypertension, High Serum Triglycerides and Overcrowding)

Table 9 Model 7 (MetS Prediction Model Consisting of Gender, Father’s Social Class at Birth, BMI at 7, Hypertension and High Serum Triglycerides)

Table 10 Model 8 (MetS Prediction Model Consisting of Father’s Social Class at Birth, High Waist Circumference and Hypertension)

Table 11 Model 9 (MetS Prediction Model Consisting of Gender, Father’s Social Class at Birth, Family History of T2DM and High Waist Circumference)

Table 12 Model 10 (MetS Prediction Model Consisting of Gender, BMI at 23 and High Waist Circumference)

Figure 1 ROC curve of Model 1 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth and high waist circumference).

Figure 1 ROC curve of Model 1 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth and high waist circumference).

Figure 2 ROC curve of model 2 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth, high waist circumference and HbA1c ≥6.0).

Figure 2 ROC curve of model 2 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth, high waist circumference and HbA1c ≥6.0).

Figure 3 ROC curve of Model 3 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth, BMI at 7, HbA1c ≥6.0 and low HDL-cholesterol).

Figure 3 ROC curve of Model 3 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth, BMI at 7, HbA1c ≥6.0 and low HDL-cholesterol).

Figure 4 ROC curve of Model 4 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth, BMI at 7, HbA1c ≥6.0, hypertension and overcrowding).

Figure 4 ROC curve of Model 4 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth, BMI at 7, HbA1c ≥6.0, hypertension and overcrowding).

Figure 5 ROC curve of Model 5 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth, BMI at 7 and hypertension).

Figure 5 ROC curve of Model 5 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth, BMI at 7 and hypertension).

Figure 6 ROC curve of Model 6 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth, BMI at 7, HbA1c ≥6.0, hypertension, high serum triglycerides and overcrowding).

Figure 6 ROC curve of Model 6 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth, BMI at 7, HbA1c ≥6.0, hypertension, high serum triglycerides and overcrowding).

Figure 7 ROC curve of Model 7 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth, BMI at 7, hypertension and high serum triglycerides).

Figure 7 ROC curve of Model 7 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth, BMI at 7, hypertension and high serum triglycerides).

Figure 8 ROC curve of Model 8 (MetS prediction model consisting of father’s social class at birth, high waist circumference and hypertension).

Figure 8 ROC curve of Model 8 (MetS prediction model consisting of father’s social class at birth, high waist circumference and hypertension).

Figure 9 ROC curve of Model 9 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth, family history of T2DM and high waist circumference).

Figure 9 ROC curve of Model 9 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, father’s social class at birth, family history of T2DM and high waist circumference).

Figure 10 ROC curve of Model 10 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, BMI at 23 and high waist circumference).

Figure 10 ROC curve of Model 10 (MetS prediction model consisting of gender, BMI at 23 and high waist circumference).

Table 13 Summary of the Performance Parameters of the Ten (10) MetS Models Developed

Table 14 Selected Model (Model 7) Adjusted for Confounders

Figure 11 ROC of selected model after controlling for possible confounders.

Figure 11 ROC of selected model after controlling for possible confounders.

Table 15 Selected Model (Model 7) Applied on a Random Bootstrap Sample

Table 16 Summary Performance of the Selected Model (Model 7) Applied on a Random Bootstrap Sample

Figure 12 ROC curve of selected model applied on a random bootstrap sample.

Figure 12 ROC curve of selected model applied on a random bootstrap sample.

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