The Incidence of Metabolic Syndrome in People Over 40 Years Old with Normal Fasting Plasma Glucose and the Predictive Cutoff Value of Effective Fasting Plasma Glucose for Metabolic Syndrome in Guiyang

Figures & data

Table 1 Incidence of MS Stratified by Sex in the Follow-Up Population with Baseline Normal FPG Range

Variables	Female (n=2567)			Male (n=942)
	MS (n=567)	Non-MS (n=2000)	P value	MS (n=108)	Non-MS (n=834)	P value
Age (years)	60.68(55.25~65.95)	58.44(53.66~63.66)	<0.001	62.42(56.61~66.28)	63.84(58.54~69.21)	0.008
Race (Han) (n,%)	553 (97.53)	1935 (96.75)	0.342	103 (95.37)	797 (95.56)	0.927
Education level (n,%)
Primary school or below	321 (56.61)	1036 (51.80)	0.043	48(44.44)	373(44.72)	0.956
High school or above	246 (43.39)	964 (48.20)		60(55.56)	461(55.28)
Walking activity(n,%)	444(78.31)	1515(75.75)	0.206	80(74.07)	665(79.74)	0.173
Smokers (n,%)	33 (5.82)	126 (6.30)	0.676	74 (68.52)	560 (67.15)	0.775
Drinkers (n,%)	125 (22.05)	483 (24.15)	0.298	73 (67.59)	552 (66.19)	0.771
Height (cm)	154(150~157.5)	155(151~159)	0.004	167(162~171)	165(161~169)	0.003
Weight(Kg)	56(52~60.6)	52.5(48~57.5)	<0.001	71.05(67.5~76.48)	62(56.3~67)	<0.001
BMI(kg/m)	23.68(22.06~25.51)	21.85(20.18~23.69)	<0.001	25.70(24.32~27.24)	22.63(21.09~24.14)	<0.001
WC(cm)	87(84~92.4)	82.4(77~87.6)	<0.001	93.15(91~95.43)	84.15(79.43~88)	<0.001
SBP(mmHg)	128.33(115.33~139)	114.33(105.67~124.33)	<0.001	134(127.5~145.92)	125(114.67~136.67)	<0.001
DBP(mmHg)	81(73.67~87)	73.33(68~78.67)	<0.001	85.83(80.5~92)	78.5(72.33~84.33)	<0.001
HDL-C(mmol/L)	1.27(1.15~1.47)	1.56(1.39~1.76)	<0.001	1.115(1.00~1.31)	1.32(1.15~1.53)	<0.001
LDL-C(mmol/L)	3.21(2.62~3.79)	3.12(2.61~3.65)	0.119	3.05(2.50~3.505)	2.955(2.47~3.44)	0.395
CHOL(mmol/L)	5.47(4.88~6.21)	5.35(4.76~6.02)	0.008	5.19(4.72~5.78)	4.985(4.42~5.55)	0.021
TG(mmol/L)	2(1.69~2.64)	1.23(0.95~1.54)	<0.001	2.07(1.71~2.82)	1.31(0.98~1.76)	<0.001
FPG(mmol/L)	5.57(5.25~5.84)	5.2(4.95~5.45)	<0.001	5.635(5.28~5.97)	5.28(4.98~5.6)	<0.001

Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; WC, waist circumference; SBP, systolic blood pressure; DBP, diastolic blood pressure; HDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; LDL-C, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; CHOL, cholesterol; TG, triglycerides; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; MS, metabolic syndrome.

Figure 1 The Incidence of MS by quartiles of FPG.

Table 2 Incidence of MS with Baseline Normal FPG Range in Subjects of Different Age Groups

Age Group (y)	MS (n,%)
	Males (n=108)	Females (n=567)
40–49	6(5.56)	46(8.11)
50–59	36(33.33)	215(37.92)
60–69	56(51.85)	238(41.98)
≥70	10(9.26)	68(11.99)
P value	0.015	<0.001

Abbreviation: MS, metabolic syndrome.

Table 3 Multivariate Logistic Regression of FPG for MS

variables	Odds Ratio (95% CI)
	Crude	β	P value	Model 1	β	P value	Model 2	β	P value
Females
FPG	4.610(3.479–6.109)	1.528	<0.001	4.615(3.486–6.108)	1.529	<0.001	4.631(3.499–6.128)	1.533	<0.001
Males
FPG	2.944(1.785–4.855)	1.080	<0.001	2.835(1.732–4.641)	1.042	<0.001	2.769(1.713–4.475)	1.019	<0.001

Notes: Crude: no adjustment; Model 1: adjusted for age; Model 2: adjusted for age, Height.

Abbreviations: OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; β, regression coefficient; FPG, fasting plasma glucose.

Table 4 ROC Analysis of MS in the Follow-Up Population with Baseline Normal FPG Range

Variables	AUC	P value	95% CI	Cut-off Value	Sensitivity	Specificity
Females
FPG	0.666	<0.001	0.609–0.722	5.605	0.537	0.463
Males
FPG	0.720	<0.001	0.696–0.745	5.545	0.515	0.833
All subjects
FPG	0.702	<0.001	0.679–0.724	5.595	0.492	0.827

Abbreviations: AUC, area under curve; CI, confidence interval; FPG, fasting plasma glucose.

Figure 2 ROC curves for FPG to predict MS in subjects with baseline normal FPG range.