The Gap Between Global Tuberculosis Incidence and the First Milestone of the WHO End Tuberculosis Strategy: An Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Database

Figures & data

Figure 1 Changes in global TB incidence rate.

Notes: The green line represents the APCIR between 2015 and 2017; the red line represents the APCIR between 2015 and 2020 in the plan of the WHO End Tuberculosis Strategy; the blue line represents the required APCIR between 2018 and 2020 in order to reach the 2020 milestone of the WHO End Tuberculosis Strategy.

Abbreviations: APCIR, annual percentage change in the incidence rate.

Table 1 The Incidence Rates in 2015, 2016 and 2017, The APCIR Between 2015 and 2017, and the Required APCIR Between 2018 and 2020 of Global and 21 Regions

Location	Incidence Rate in 2015 (Per 100,000 Population)	Incidence Rate in 2016 (Per 100,000 Population)	Incidence Rate in 2017 (Per 100,000 Population)	APCIR^a Between 2015 and 2017	Required APCIR^a Between 2018 and 2020 to Reach the 2020 Milestone
Global	119.98 (109.63–131.82)	118.63 (108.39–130.2)	117.35 (107.22–128.54)	−1.10%	−5.94%
High-income Asia Pacific	30.89 (28.47–33.37)	30.6 (28.22–33.04)	30.35 (27.98–32.77)	−0.88%	−6.08%
Central Asia	86.52 (79.09–94.18)	83.65 (76.46–91.26)	81 (73.96–88.71)	−3.19%	−4.54%
East Asia	62.23 (56.69–68.1)	61.25 (55.86–67.1)	60.73 (55.41–66.48)	−1.20%	−5.86%
South Asia	199.81 (182.26–218.72)	196.32 (179.2–214.77)	192.56 (175.73–211.25)	−1.81%	−5.46%
Southeast Asia	144.16 (131.13–157.89)	144.99 (132.03–158.81)	146.04 (133.06–159.89)	0.65%	−7.10%
Australasia	5.82 (5.3–6.36)	5.82 (5.3–6.35)	5.81 (5.3–6.32)	−0.16%	−6.56%
Caribbean	33.69 (30.73–37.05)	33.82 (30.84–37.17)	33.97 (30.93–37.36)	0.41%	−6.94%
Central Europe	24.37 (22.52–26.38)	23.74 (21.93–25.64)	23.18 (21.46–24.97)	−2.43%	−5.05%
Eastern Europe	76.6 (68.23–85.74)	71.98 (64.22–80.35)	67.21 (60.26–74.72)	−6.13%	−2.58%
Western Europe	7.64 (6.92–8.44)	7.49 (6.8–8.26)	7.35 (6.68–8.08)	−1.91%	−5.39%
Andean Latin America	67.36 (61.77–73.63)	66.52 (60.95–72.7)	65.79 (60.17–72.19)	−1.16%	−5.89%
Central Latin America	17.99 (16.46–19.81)	18.24 (16.68–20.08)	18.54 (16.94–20.43)	1.52%	−7.68%
Southern Latin America	12.58 (11.58–13.62)	12.73 (11.74–13.78)	12.93 (11.97–13.94)	1.36%	−7.57%
Tropical Latin America	32.09 (29.01–35.75)	32.23 (29.03–36.08)	32.4 (29.03–36.5)	0.48%	−6.99%
North Africa and Middle East	43.6 (39.35–48.3)	42.89 (38.69–47.58)	42.24 (38.05–46.92)	−1.56%	−5.63%
High-income North America	2.9 (2.63–3.21)	2.79 (2.53–3.11)	2.68 (2.42–3)	−3.69%	−4.21%
Oceania	124.51 (112.47–138.07)	126.69 (114.3–140.8)	129.2 (116.52–144.08)	1.88%	−7.92%
Central Sub-Saharan Africa	412.24 (372.93–455.15)	407.87 (368.73–451.82)	403.8 (364.91–447.67)	−1.02%	−5.98%
Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa	287.02 (261.17–316.58)	285.81 (260.04–315.69)	285.54 (259.92–315.06)	−0.26%	−6.49%
Southern Sub-Saharan Africa	524.28 (467.92–589.05)	487.78 (436.48–546.93)	446.38 (399.17–500)	−7.43%	−1.71%
Western Sub-Saharan Africa	216.68 (198.3–237.58)	213.38 (195.34–233.93)	210.4 (192.77–230.49)	−1.45%	−5.70%

Notes: ^aAPCIR was obtained by comparing with 2015 baseline. Red cell represents APCIR>0%; dark blue cell represents APCIR<-4%; light blue cell represents −4%<APCIR<0%.

Abbreviation: APCIR, annual percentage change in the incidence rate.

Figure 2 The APCIR of TB between 2015 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

Abbreviation: APCIR, annual percentage change in the incidence rate.