Application of the ARIMA Model in Forecasting the Incidence of Tuberculosis in Anhui During COVID-19 Pandemic from 2021 to 2022

Figures & data

Figure 1 Time series of tuberculosis incidence in Anhui province from January 2013 to June 2020.

Figure 2 Monthly figure of tuberculosis incidence in Anhui province from 2013 to 2020.

Figure 3 Geographic distribution of the average annual incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Anhui province, 2013–2020.

Figure 4 Time series of tuberculosis incidence in Anhui province from January 2013 to June 2020 after first order difference.

Figure 5 ACF(A) and PACF(B) function diagram after first order difference.

Table 1 Prediction of Tuberculosis Cases in Anhui from July to December in 2020

Month	Actual Value (1/100,000)	Predicted Value (95% Confidence Interval)(1/100,000)	Relative Error (%)
Jul	3.803	3.588(2.891–4.285)	5.7
Aug	3.461	3.386(2.675–4.097)	2.2
Sep	3.632	3.215(2.491–3.939)	11.5
Oct	3.074	3.093(2.356–3.831)	0.6
Nov	3.353	3.260(2.509–4.010)	2.7
Dec	3.347	3.576(2.813–4.339)	6.8

Table 2 Prediction Results of Monthly Incidence of Tuberculosis from January 2021 to December 2022

Month	Prediction Number of Cases and 95% Confidence Interval (1/100,000)
	2021 Year	2022 Year
Jan	2.517(1.741–3.293)	2.175(1.078–3.271)
Feb	2.014(1.226–2.803)	1.673(0.556–2.789)
Mar	3.559(2.759–4.360)	3.218(2.081–4.353)
Apr	3.618(2.805–4.430)	3.276(2.121–4.431)
May	3.526(2.701–4.350)	3.184(2.100–4.358)
Jun	3.395(2.559–4.231)	3.053(1.860–4.246)
Jul	3.246(2.277–4.215)	2.904(1.587–4.222)
Aug	3.044(2.053–4.036)	2.702(1.355–4.049)
Sep	2.873(1.859–3.886)	2.531(1.155–3.907)
Oct	2.751(1.716–3.786)	2.409(1.005–3.813)
Nov	2.918(1.862–3.974)	2.576(1.144–4.007)
Dec	3.234(2.158–4.311)	2.892(1.434–4.351)

Figure 6 Prediction of tuberculosis incidence in 2021 and 2022 and 80% and 95% confidence intervals.