Trends in Under-5 Mortality Rates and Their Associations with Socioeconomic Factors Among Countries Participating in the Belt and Road Initiative: A Panel Data Analysis

Figures & data

Figure 1 Study flowchart.

Figure 2 The burden of U5MR in 137 BRI countries. (A) U5MR in 2018; (B) The relative change in U5MR between 2000 and 2018; (C) The estimated annual percentage change of U5MR from 2000 to 2018.

Abbreviations: U5MR, under-five mortality rate; BRI, Belt and Road innovation; SOM, Somalia; MNE, Montenegro; RWA, Rwanda; DMA, Dominica.

Figure 3 The correlation between EAPC and U5MR in 2000 in 137 BRI countries. The size of circle is increased with the cases of number of under-five deaths. The ρ indices and p were derived from Pearson’s product-moment correlation analysis.

Abbreviations: EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; U5MR, under-five mortality rate; BRI, Belt and Road innovation.

Table 1 Association Between U5MR and Socioeconomic Factors in BRI Countries

		10th Percentile^a	25th Percentile^a	50th Percentile^a	75th Percentile^a	90th Percentile^a	Fixed Effect Model^b
GDP per capita/1000^d	Coefficient^c	−0.52	−0.58	−0.62	−0.70	−0.84	−0.60
	95% CI	−0.81,-0.23	−0.84,-0.32	−0.89,-0.36	−1.00,-0.40	−1.22,-0.45	−0.92,-0.28
	p-value	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01
GDP growth rate (%)	Coefficient^c	0.03	0.12	0.17	0.33	0.45	0.21
	95% CI	−0.32,0.37	−0.09,0.32	0.01,0.32	0.06,0.60	0.07,0.83	0.10,0.32
	p-value	0.88	0.26	0.03	0.02	<0.01	<0.01
Inflation (%)	Coefficient^c	0.15	0.14	0.21	0.33	0.41	0.20
	95% CI	0.06,0.24	0.06,0.22	0.14,0.27	0.19,0.47	0.19,0.64	0.16,0.25
	p-value	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01
Unemployment rate (%)	Coefficient^c	0.63	0.40	0.36	0.33	0.25	1.26
	95% CI	0.13,1.14	−0.07,0.87	−0.14,0.85	−0.32,0.98	−0.48,0.98	0.97,1.55
	p-value	0.01	0.09	0.16	0.31	0.50	<0.01

Notes: ^aQuantile fixed effects model, the dependent variable was five percentiles (10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th) of the distribution of U5MR. County was used as a classification and the socioeconomic variable (GDP per capita, GDP growth rate, inflation, and unemployment rate) as continuous predictors; ^bFixed effected model, the dependent variable was U5MR. Countries was used as a classification prediction and the socioeconomic factors as continuous predictors; ^cThe coefficient represents the change in the value at the nth percentile of U5MR unit change in the independent variable; ^dAggregates are based on constant 2010 US dollars.

Abbreviations: U5MR, under-five mortality rate; BRI, Belt and Road innovation.

Figure 4 Quantile regression coefficients for U5MR and socioeconomic factors on percentiles of total U5MR in BRI countries. This picture shows the quantile regression coefficients (dark blue line) with 95% CI for the relationship between U5MR and socioeconomic factors. (A) Quantile regression coefficients for GDP per capita and U5MR on percentiles of total U5MR; (B) Quantile regression coefficients for GDP growth rate and U5MR on percentiles of total U5MR; (C) Quantile regression coefficients for inflation and U5MR on percentiles of total U5MR; (D) Quantile regression coefficients for unemployment rate and U5MR on percentiles of total U5MR.

Abbreviations: U5MR, under-five mortality rate; BRI, Belt and Road innovation.