Incidence Trends and Survival Prediction of Malignant Skin Cancer: A SEER-Based Study

Figures & data

Figure 1 Flowchart of inclusion and exclusion.

Table 1 Patients’ Demographics and Clinical Characteristics of Malignant Skin Cancer

Characteristics	Cases (%)	Deaths (%)
All patients	3551	1080
Age
0–49	768 (21.6)	89 (8.2)
50–65	1147 (32.3)	231 (21.4)
66–	1636 (46.1)	760 (70.4)
Sex
Female	1428 (40.2)	385 (35.7)
Male	2123 (59.8)	695 (64.3)
Marital status
Married	1856 (52.3)	531 (49.2)
Others	1695 (47.7)	549 (50.8)
Ethnicity
White	3137 (88.3)	1005 (93.1)
Black	167 (4.7)	28 (2.6)
Others	247 (7.0)	47 (4.3)
Year of diagnosis
2004–2007	1071 (30.2)	498 (46.1)
2008–2011	1145 (32.2)	384 (35.6)
2012–2015	1335 (37.6)	198 (18.3)
Region
Alaska	6 (0.2)	3 (0.3)
East	1496 (42.1)	416 (38.5)
Northern Plains	2919 (8.2)	110 (10.2)
Pacific Coast	1540 (43.4)	501 (46.4)
Southwest	218 (6.1)	50 (4.6)
Site
Melanoma of the Skin	1520 (42.8)	426 (39.4)
Other Non-Epithelial Skin	2031 (57.2)	654 (60.6)
Stage
I	1392 (39.2)	213 (19.7)
II	430 (12.1)	164 (15.2)
III	377 (10.6)	175 (16.2)
IV	1352 (38.1)	528 (48.9)
Tumor size
Unclear	1369 (38.6)	423 (39.2)
Clear	2182 (61.4)	657 (60.8)
Surgical history
No surgery	353 (9.9)	213 (19.7)
Primary site surgery	3198 (90.1)	867 (80.3)

Table 2 Survival, Univariate and Multivariate Analysis in Patients with Skin Cancer

Characteristics	Overall Survival Rate (%)		Univariate Survival		Multivariate Survival
	3-year	5-year	HR (95% CI)	P	HR (95% CI)	P
All patients	51.4	33.8
Age						<0.001
0–49	62.4	44.1	1 (reference)		1 (reference)
50–65	54.3	36.5	2.000 (1.558–2.567)	<0.001	1.880 (1.463–2.415)	<0.001
66–	44.1	27.0	5.475 (4.372–6.856)	<0.001	5.110 (4.076–6.408)	<0.001
Sex
Female	52.7	35.6	1 (reference)		1 (reference)
Male	50.5	32.5	1.238 (1.091–1.404)	0.001	1.175 (1.032–1.336)	0.015
Marital status
Married	52.7	35.3	1 (reference)		1 (reference)
Others	49.9	32.1	1.213 (1.074–1.369)	0.002	1.153 (1.018–1.305)	0.025
Ethnicity						<0.001
White	51.5	33.4	1 (reference)
Black	53.3	40.1	0.536 (0.368–0.780)	0.001
Others	48.2	34.4	0.617 (0.459–0.830)	0.001
Year of diagnosis
2004–2007	72.9	64.9	1 (reference)
2008–2011	72.7	44.1	0.953 (0.828–1.097)	0.503
2012–2015	15.8	/	0.836 (0.698–1.002)	0.052
Region
Alaska	50.0	50.0	1 (reference)
East	48.3	32.5	0.590 (0.189–1.836)	0.362
Northern Plains	4.5	2.8	0.875 (0.278–2.756)	0.820
Pacific Coast	53.6	36.2	0.684 (0.220–2.128)	<0.512
Southwest	65.1	30.7	0.470 (0.146–1.507)	0.204
Site
Melanoma of the Skin	52.2	33.7	1 (reference)		1 (reference)
Other Non-Epithelial Skin	50.7	33.9	1.189 (1.050–1.345)	0.006	1.005 (0.887–1.139)	0.934
Stage
I	61.4	40.7	1 (reference)
II	47.9	31.2	2.908 (2.370–3.568)	<0.001
III	40.1	23.1	4.097 (3.352–5.007)	<0.001
IV	45.3	30.5	3.081 (2.623–3.618)	<0.001
Tumor size
Unclear	72.6	32.4	1 (reference)
Clear	38.0	34.6	0.988 (0.872–1.118)	0.843
Surgical history
No surgery	27.2	15.9	1 (reference)		1 (reference)
Primary site surgery	54.0	35.8	0.285 (0.244–0.333)	<0.001	0.318 (0.271–0.372)	<0.001

Figure 2 Age-adjusted incidence rate of skin cancer in 2004–2015.

Notes: Stratified by total (A), sex (B), ethnicity (C).

Figure 3 Continue.

Figure 3 Survival curves of malignant skin cancer patients.

Notes: Age (A), sex (B), marital status (C), ethnicity (D), year of diagnosis (E), region (F), site (G), stage (H), tumor size (I), surgery (J).

Figure 4 Nomograms for predicting overall survival of malignant skin cancer patients.

Notes: (A) Predicting 3- and 5-year overall survival of malignant skin cancer patients; (B) predicting the probability of malignant skin cancer.

Figure 5 Calibration curves for overall survival of malignant skin cancer patients.

Notes: (A) 3-year; (B) 5-year.