Age at First Marriage and Fertility Decline in Dabat Health and Demographic Surveillance System Site, Northwest Ethiopia: Decomposition Analysis

Figures & data

Table 1 Distribution of Women and Number of Children Ever Born by Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics of Women Aged 15–49 in Dabat HDSS, 2008–2014

Variables and Categories		Census Year
		2008			2014
		Women (4,775)	CEB	ACEB per Women	Women (10,807)	CEB	ACEB per Women
		Number (%)			Number (%)
Current Age	15–19	542 (11.4)	485	0.9	2,977 (27.6)	432	0.2
	20–24	1,036 (21.7)	1,852	1.8	1,857 (17.2)	1,817	1.1
	25–29	1,235 (25.9)	3,858	3.1	1,729 (16.0)	3,898	2.4
	30–34	873 (18.3)	3,588	4.1	1,264 (11.7)	4,496	3.8
	35–39	570 (11.9)	2,837	4.9	1,344 (12.4)	6,264	4.9
	40–44	363 (7.6)	1,926	5.3	977 (9.0)	5,316	5.7
	45–49	156 (3.3)	931	6.0	659 (6.1)	3,561	6.2
Early Marriage	Yes	3,622 (75.9)	12,536	3.5	8,547 (86.6)	23,336	2.7
	No	1,153 (24.2)	2,941	2.6	1,322 (13.4)	2,448	1.9
Reproductive Intention	Yes	3,005 (62.9)	9,342	3.1	3,202 (29.6)	10,394	3.3
	No	1,770 (37.1)	6,135	3.5	7,605 (70.4)	15,390	2.3
Educational Status	No Education	3,796 (79.5)	13,553	3.6	5,264 (48.7)	21,137	4.4
	Primary	450 (9.4)	1,084	2.4	2,012 (18.6)	2,505	1.4
	Secondary+	529 (11.1)	840	1.6	3,531 (32.7)	2,142	0.7
Residence	Urban	1,157 (24.2)	2,758	2.4	4,093 (37.9)	5,216	1.4
	Rural	3,618 (75.8)	12,719	3.5	6,714 (62.1)	20,568	3.4
Marital Status	Single	134 (2.8)	154	1.1	3,281 (30.4)	286	0.1
	Married	4,103 (85.9)	13,607	3.3	5,896 (54.6)	21,623	3.9
	Dissolved	538 (11.3)	1,716	3.2	1,629 (15.1)	3,875	2.6
Migration Status	No Migrant	1,951 (40.9)	6,669	3.4	3,809 (35.3)	8,659	2.5
	Migrant	2,824 (59.1)	8,808	3.1	6,998 (64.8)	17,125	2.7
Current Contraceptive Use	Yes	891 (18.7)	2826	3.2	2,079 (19.2)	6,783	3.3
	No	3,884 (81.3)	12,651	3.3	8,728 (80.8)	19,001	2.4
Wealth Quintile	Lowest	694 (14.5)	2,546	3.7	1,503 (14.5)	2,386	1.8
	Lower	1,182 (24.8)	4,498	3.8	1,668 (16.1)	3,641	2.3
	Middle	859 (17.9)	2,687	3.1	2,203 (21.2)	4,971	2.4
	Higher	1,084 (22.7)	3,580	3.3	2,245 (21.6)	6,104	2.9
	Highest	956 (20.0)	2,166	2.3	2,758 (26.6)	7,649	3.0
Total		4,775 (100)	15,477	3.3	10,907 (100)	25,784	2.4

Note: Source: Calculated from Dabat DHSS Census and Re-census Data.

Abbreviations: CEB, children ever born; ACEB, average number of children ever born.

Table 2 Multivariate Analysis of Determinant Factors Among Women of Reproductive Age in Dabat HDSS, 2008–2014

Variables and Categories		Census Year
		2008		2014		Pooled (2008–2014)
		AIRR	95% CI	AIRR	95% CI	AIRR	95% CI
Current Age	15–19	0.27***	0.24–0.29	0.19***	0.17–0.21	0.22***	0.29–0.24
	20–24	0.58***	0.55–0.62	0.58***	0.55–0 0.62	0.58***	0.56–0.61
	25–29	1.00	–	1.00	–	1.00	–
	30–34	1.31***	1.25–1.37	1.35***	1.28–1.41	1.33***	1.29–1.37
	35–39	1.60***	1.52–1.68	1.65***	1.58–1.72	1.64***	1.59–1.69
	40–44	1.75***	1.65–1.85	1.89***	1.81–1.98	1.85***	1.79–1.92
	45–49	1.94***	1.81–2.10	2.03***	1.93–2.13	2.00***	1.93–2.08
Early Marriage	Yes	1.00	–	1.00		1.00
	No	0.77***	0.74–0.80	0.74***	0.70–0.77	0.76***	0.74–0.79
Reproductive Intention	Yes	1.00	–	1.00		1.00
	No	1.05**	1.02–1.09	1.02**	1.00–1.05	1.03**	1.01–1.05
Educational Status	No Education	1.00	–	1.00		1.00
	Primary	0.98	0.91–1.04	0.90**	0.86–0.95	0.92***	0.88–0.95
	Secondary+	0.79***	0.72–0.86	0.64***	0.61–0.68	0.67***	0.64–0.70
Residence	Urban	0.85***	0.78–0.93	0.78***	0.75–0.82	0.77***	0.75–0.79
	Rural	1.00	–	1.00	–	1.00	–
Marital Status	Single	0.63***	0.54–0.74	0.11***	0.09–0.12	0.14***	0.13–0.16
	Married	1.00	–	1.00	–	1.00	–
	Dissolved	0.79***	0.75–0.84	0.78***	0.75–0.81	0.77***	0.74–0.79
Migration Status	No Migrant	0.99	0.96–1.02	1.01	0.98–1.03	1	0.98–1.02
	Migrant	1.00	–	1.00	–	1.00	–
Wealth Quintile	Lowest	1.02	0.97–1.07	0.96	0.91–1.01	0.98	0.95–1.02
	Lower	1.00	–	1.00	–	1.00	–
	Middle	0.97	0.83–1.02	1.01	0.96–1.04	0.98	0.95–1.01
	Higher	0.95	0.91–1.00	1.07***	1.03–1.12	1.03	0.99–1.06
	Highest	0.98*	0.81–0.99	1.12***	1.07–1.16	1.09***	1.06–1.13
Year	2008					1.00
	2014					0.96***	0.93–0.97
Total Number

Notes: Source: Calculated from Dabat DHSS Census and Re-census Data; Significance level: ***p<0.001, **p<0.01, *p<0.05.

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; AIRR, adjusted incidence rate ratios.

Table 3 Decomposition of the Decline of Children Ever Born in Dabat HDSS, 2008–2014, Northwest Ethiopia

Variables	Characteristics (E)				Coefficient (C)
	Coef.	95% CI		%	Coef.	95% CI		%
Residence
Urban	−9.93***	−11.61	−8.25	1.5	−10.68	−24.12	2.76	1.6
Rural	−9.93***	−11.61	−8.25	1.5	33.39	−8.62	75.41	−5.2
Age Group
15–19	−130.80***	−141.01	−120.59	20.4	−39.99***	−57.54	−22.45	6.2
20–24	11.80***	10.54	13.06	−1.8	5.22	−10.05	20.49	−0.8
25–29	0.26	−1.943	1.431	−0.4	6.83	−6.71	20.37	−1.06
30–34	−10.27***	−11.55	−8.99	1.6	10.42*	0.88	19.95	−1.6
35–39	1.99***	1.84	2.15	−0.3	7.39*	0.96	13.83	−1.1
40–44	5.92***	5.48	6.36	−0.9	8.45**	3.39	13.51	−1.3
45–49	9.82***	9.09	10.54	−1.5	2.35	−0.22	4.91	−0.4
Education
No Education	−29.11***	−34.64	−23.57	4.5	80.39**	32.15	128.63	−12.5
Primary	3.57***	2.18	4.96	−0.6	1.76	−4.09	7.61	−0.3
Secondary+	−31.15***	−36.59	−25.70	4.8	−13.27**	−22.36	−4.18	2.1
Marital Status
Single	−201.49***	−215.90	−187.08	31.4	−36.88***	−49.52	−24.24	5.7
Married	−137.62***	−147.66	−127.57	21.4	574.20***	377.74	770.66	−89.6
Dissolved	13.30***	12.18	14.41	−2.1	72.761***	47.105	98.417	−11.3
Migration Status
No Migrant	−0.10	−0.56	0.35	0.01	3.75	−5.98	13.48	−0.5
Migrant	−0.10	−0.57	0.35	0.01	−5.43	−19.51	8.65	0.8
Early Marriage
Yes	8.51***	7.21	9.80	−1.3	16.79	−10.86	44.44	−2.6
No	8.51***	7.21	9.80	−1.3	−5.35	−14.15	3.46	0.8
Fertility Intention
Yes	2.35*	0.15	4.55	−0.4	9.75	−5.79	25.29	−1.5
No	2.35*	0.15	4.55	−0.4	−5.74	−14.90	3.41	0.8
Wealth Quintile
Lowest	0.13***	0.07	0.19	−0.02	−20.70***	−31.88	−9.52	3.2
Lower	1.23*	0.01	2.58	−0.2	−16.40*	−30.42	−2.39	2.5
Middle	−0.49	−0.96	−0.02	0.07	−4.16	−15.58	3.27	0.9
Higher	−0.22**	−0.35	−0.93	0.03	13.28*	2.43	24.12	−2.1
Highest	3.01***	2.27	3.74	−0.50	36.93**	14.92	58.93	−5.7
Constant	NA	NA	NA	NA	−874.81	−1,184.5	−565.18	136.54
Component	−488.94	−524.74	−453.13	76.31	−151.75	−224.36	−79.14	23.69
Raw Difference	−640.69	−699.24	−582.14	100
Number of observations				15,582

Notes: Source: Calculated from Dabat DHSS Census (2008) and Re-census (2014) Data. Significance level: ***p<0.001, **p<0.01, *p<0.05.

Abbreviations: NA, not applicable; CI, confidence interval.