Stochasticity among Victims of COVID-19 Pandemic

Figures & data

Table 1 COVID-19 in Cruise Ship, 2020, Mizumoto et al¹⁶

Date	Y3	Y2	Y1
Feb 15–16, 2020	29, 32	38, 38	67, 70	68.50	4.50	0.50	1.7E-30
Feb 17–18, 2020	29, 23	70, 65	99, 88	93.50	60.50	0.50	2.4E-41
Feb 19–20, 2020	11, 7	68, 6	79, 13	46.00	21.78	0.50	1.0E-20

Table 2 Results for Mizumoto et al’s COVID-19 Data in Diamond Princess

Date
15, 16 Feb 2020	943.88	0.27*	15.22	1042.72	857.81	0.93
17, 18 Feb 2020	7.36E+17	0.70*	1.54	144.50	18.79	0.61
19, 20 Feb 2020	9.69E+11	0.65*	2.11	97.15	23.56	0.67

Notes: *The observed level of Poisson heterogeneity was only 0.27 (a low amount) on February 15–16, 2020 but increased to 0.70 (a large amount) on February 17–18, 2020 and slightly decreased to 0.65 on February 19–20, 2020. It suggests that the chance-oriented Poisson mechanism was dynamic over the period.

Table 3 Results for Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in Mizumoto et al¹⁶

Date
15, 16 Feb 2020	0.45	0.0002	0.99	0.95	37.12	6.85
17, 18 Feb 2020	0.28	0.0004	0.98	0.89	66.60	41.14
19, 20 Feb 2020	0.34	0.0796	0.10	0.74	29.70	14.72

Table 4 Tango’s Test Statistic** and Its P-value for Several Entities

Tango Statistic
T with 2 df	0.25	0.36	0.41	0.77	0.51	699420	260.66	751.20
p-value	0.87	0.83	0.81	0.67	0.77	0.0E100	2.4E-57	7.5E-164

Notes: **Recall that there are two types of heterogeneity. One is observable and the other is non-observable. The non-observable heterogeneities of the Poisson count, and of the non-observable heterogeneity, of the binomial count, are high on February 15–18, 2020 but decreased later on February 19–20, 2020 (Figure 2 for non-observable and Figure 3 for observable). The above-mentioned behavior of the non-observable heterogeneities are confirmed by the Tango’s indices also. The isomorphic relationship (that is factor, in expression (9(9) ) to visualize their interplay) between the parameters p and λ is illustrated in Figure 4.

Figure 1 Distance, in Poisson.

Figure 2 Non-observable heterogeneity.

Figure 3 Observable heterogeneity.

Figure 4 The configuration isomorphic factor .

Figure 5 Odds for asymptotic.

Mizumoto K, Kagaya K, Zarebski A, Chowell G. Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020;25(10):1560–7917. doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180

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