Analysis of Risk Factors and Construction of a Prediction Model of Motor Dysfunction Caused by Limb Herpes Zoster

Figures & data

Figure 1 Flow of patients through this retrospective study.

Table 1 Demographic or Characteristic Date of Motor Dysfunction Group and Nonmotor Dysfunction Group

Demographic or Characteristic	Motor Dysfunction (n=58)	Nonmotor Dysfunction (n=155)	P
Age (years)	65.28±12.37	64.57±11.69	0.762
Course of disease (days)	15.50, 20.00	20.00, 20.00	0.257
Sex
Male	21 (36.20)	69 (44.52)	0.274
Female	37 (63.80)	86 (55.48)
Location of involvement
Upper limb	45 (77.59)	71 (45.81)	0.000
Lower limb	13 (22.41)	84 (54.19)
Whether or not diseases were combined
No	29 (50.00)	102 (65.81)	0.035
Yes	29 (50.00)	53 (34.19)
NRS
<7	34 (58.62)	88 (56.77)	0.808
≥7	24 (41.38)	67 (43.23)
The number of affected centrums
≤3	30 (51.72)	118 (76.13)	0.001
>3	28 (48.28)	37 (23.87)
Treatment
Epidural nerve block	43 (74.14)	117 (75.48)	0.840
PR of posterior root of spinal nerve	15 (25.86)	38 (24.52)

Notes: Results are expressed as mean ± SD, percentages, or as medians, IQR; P values were compared by independent t-test, Mann–Whitney U-test or χ² test as appropriate.

Abbreviations: NRS, numerical rating scale; PR, pulse radiofrequency.

Table 2 Univariate Logistic Regression of Motor Dysfunction in Patients with Limb Herpes Zoster

	Odds Ratio (95% CI)	P
Sex	0.707 (0.375–1.309)	0.276
Age	0.5429 (0.253–1.194)	0.119
Course of disease	1.588 (0.736–3.738)	0.260
Location of involvement	4.095 (2.097–8.466)	0.017
Combine diseases	0.520 (0.281–0.959)	0.036
NRS	1.079 (0.587–2.003)	0.808
The number of affected centrums	0.336 (0.177–0.632)	0.001
Treatment	0.931 (0.472–1.900)	0.840

Abbreviation: NRS, numerical rating scale.

Table 3 Multivariable Logistic Regression of Motor Dysfunction in Patients with Limb Herpes Zoster

	Odds Ratio (95% CI)	P
Location of involvement
Lower limb	1.000	0.001
Upper limb	3.811 (1.829–8.387)
Combine diseases
Yes	1.000	0.041
No	0.493 (0.249–0.969)
The number of affected centrums
>3	1.000	0.020
≤3	0.439 (0.218–0.881)

Figure 2 Nomogram for prediction of motor dysfunction in patients with limb herpes zoster.

Notes: Different values of each variable correspond to different positions in the nomogram. Draw a line from the position of each variable to the points axis for acquiring points of this variable. Points of different variables are calculated and summed to yield a total score that can be converted into predicted probability of motor dysfunction based on the total score axis of the nomogram.

Abbreviations: LOI, location of involvement; CD, combine diseases; NOAC, the number of affected centrums.

Figure 3 Calibration plot.

Notes: The y-axis is the actual probability. The x-axis is the predicted probability. The diagonal dotted line represents a perfect prediction by an ideal model. The solid line represents the bias-corrected performance of the nomogram, where a closer fit to the diagonal dotted line represents a better prediction.