Roles of Proximate Determinants of Fertility in Recent Fertility Decline in Ethiopia: Application of the Revised Bongaarts Model

Figures & data

Table 1 Some Selected Reproductive Indicators from EDHS, 2005–2016, Ethiopia

Reproductive Indicators	2005	2011	2016
Total fertility rate	5.4	4.8	4.6
Proportion of contraceptive Use=u(a)	14.7	28.6	35.9
The total marital fertility rate	8.5	7.9	7.7
Average contraceptive effectiveness	0.91	0.94	0.95
The median duration of postpartum insusceptiblity=i(a)	16.7	16.6	16
Total abortion rate	0.022	0.022	0.028

Note: Data from EDHS, 2005,⁶ 2011,¹⁹ and 2016.⁷

Table 2 Estimated Index of Proximate Determinants of Fertility and Their Fertility Reduction Effect in EDHS Data of 2005, 2011 and 2016

EDHS (Years)	Index of Sexual Exposure (Cm)	Effect on Fertility Reduction	Index of Postpartum Insusceptibility (Ci)	Effect on Fertility Reduction	Index of Contraceptive (Cc)	Effect on Fertility Reduction	Index of Induced Abortion (Ca)	Effect on Fertility Reduction
2016^7	0.65	35%	0.58	42%	0.63	37%	0.997	0.3%
2011^19	0.63	37%	0.57	43%	0.71	29%	0.997	0.3%
2005^6	0.64	36%	0.57	43%	0.85	15%	0.997	0.3%

Table 3 Estimation of PD Index in Relation to Some Background

Background	Cm	Ci	Cc	Ca	Fecund (TF)	TFR-est	TFR-obs	Error
Residence
Urban	0.67	0.77	0.47	0.99	15.3	3.7	2.3	1.4
Rural	0.795	0.57	0.67	0.997	15.3	4.6	5.2	0.6
Educational background
No education	0.95	0.56	0.68	0.998	15.3	5.6	5.7	0.1
Primary	0.64	0.60	0.62	0.997	15.3	3.6	4.2	0.6
Secondary	0.47	0.78	0.47	0.993	15.3	2.6	2.2	0.4
Higher	0.65	0.80	0.44	0.992	15.3	3.5	1.9	1.6
Wealth quintiles
Lowest	0.86	0.56	0.8	0.998	15.3	5.8	6.4	0.6
Second	0.82	0.58	0.67	0.998	15.3	4.9	5.6	0.7
Middle	0.79	0.56	0.62	0.997	15.3	4.2	4.9	0.7
Fourth	0.74	0.65	0.58	0.997	15.3	4.2	4.3	0.1
Highest	0.67	0.76	0.49	0.997	15.3	3.8	2.6	1.2

Note: Data from EDHS 2016.⁷

Table 4 Estimated Total Fertility Rate Using Bongaarts Revised Model EDHS 2005, 2011 and 2016

EDHS (Years)	Cm	Ci	Cc	Ca	Fecund (TF)	TFR Estimated	TFR-Observed
2016^7	0.652	0.58	0.63	0.997	15.3	3.6	4.6
2011^19	0.634	0.57	0.71	0.997	15.3	3.9	4.8
2005^6	0.64	0.56	0.85	0.997	15.3	4.6	5.4

Macro O; Agency/Ethiopia CS. Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2005. 2006.

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Central Statistical Agency [Ethiopia] and ICF International. 2012. Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2011. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Calverton, Maryland, USA: Central Statistical Agency and ICF International.

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Central Statistical Agency (CSA) [Ethiopia] and ICF. 2016. Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2016. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and Rockville, Maryland, USA: CSA and ICF.

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