Does herpes zoster predispose to giant cell arteritis: a geo-epidemiologic study

Figures & data

Table 1 Incidence rates of giant cell arteritis and herpes zoster per country

Country	GCA study: year published (study period)/region	IRGCA	HZ study: year/region	IRHZ50	IRHZ70	Time overlap
Norway, B+C^Citation37	2014 (2006–2012)/South	21	2016 (2008–2012)/National^Citation38	2.8	7.0	Yes
Finland, B+C^Citation39	1992 (1984–1988)/West Nyland	26.2	2010 (2000–2006)/Tuusula, Kangasala, Salo^Citation40	2.5	6.5	No
Sweden, B^Citation41	2015 (1997–2010)/Skane	14.1	2013 (2006–2010)/National^Citation42	2.5	8.0	Yes
United Kingdom, B+C^Citation43	2006 (1990–2001)/National	22	2003 (1991–2000)/National^Citation44	4.0	9.3	Yes
USA, C^Citation45	2015 (2000–2009)/Olmsted Cty	19.8	2016 (1945–2007)/Olmsted City^Citation46	4.5	8.4	Yes
Spain, B^Citation47	2007 (1981–2005)/Lugo	10.13	2013 (2007–2010)/Valencian Community^Citation48	4.8	9.8	No
New Zealand, B^Citation49	2011 (1996–2005)/Otago	12.73	2014 (2009–2013)/Lower Hutt^Citation50	6.1	7.3	No
Israel, B+C^Citation51	2007 (1980–2004)/Jerusalem	11.3	2013 (2006–2010)/Tel Aviv^Citation52	5.8	11.8	No
Canada, B^Citation53	2007 (1998–2003)/Saskatoon	9.4	2011 (1992–2010)/Ontario^Citation54	3.7	7.4	Yes
France, B+C^Citation55	1982 (1970–1979)/Loire-Atlantique	9.4	2010 (2005–2007)/National^Citation56	4.2	8.7	No
Italy, B+C^Citation57	2017 (1986–2012)/Reggio Emilia	5.8	2010 (2003–2005)/National^Citation58	3.6	7.7	Yes
Australia, B^Citation59	2013 (1992–2011)/Adelaide	3.2	2008 (1998–2006)/National^Citation60	6.5	11.5	Yes
Germany, C^Citation61	2005 (1998–2002)/Schlewig-Holstein	3.3	2011 (2007–2008)/National^Citation62	6.2	11.3	No
Japan, Cal^Citation7	2003 (1998)/National	0.13	2009 (1997–2006)/Miyazaki^Citation63	3.9	7.4	Yes

Notes: B, biopsy proven; C, clinical criteria for diagnosis; Cal, calculated from published prevalence rate; Time overlap, the incidence rates for GCA and HZ were from the same time period.

Abbreviations: GCA, giant cell arteritis; IR, incidence rate; IR_GCA, giant cell arteritis incidence rates per 100,000 subjects, 50 years of age or older; HZ, herpes zoster; IR_HZ50, herpes zoster incidence rates in 50-year-old subjects per 1,000 person years; IR_HZ70, herpes zoster incidence rates in 70-year-old subjects per 1,000 person years.

Figure 1 Incidence of giant cell arteritis versus incidence of herpes zoster per country.

Notes: Each dot represents a country’s intersecting incidence rates for giant cell arteritis in subjects 50 years or older, and herpes zoster in 50 year-old subjects. The negative sloping red line is the line of best linear fit using the least squares method.

Table 2 Correlation and linear regression of the incidence rates of giant cell arteritis versus herpes zoster

Zoster incidence rate age groups	Number of countries	Correlation coefficient	Regression coefficient	p-value, R^2	p-value with robust SE	p-value for white’s test
50-year-olds, all countries	14	−0.51	−2.92	p=0.07, R^2=0.26	p=0.025	p=0.28
70-year-olds, all countries	14	−0.40	−1.78	p=0.16, R^2=0.16	p=0.12	p=0.42
50-year-olds, time overlap	8	−0.38	−2.66	p=0.35, R^2=0.14	p=0.06	p=0.12
70-year-olds, time overlap	8	−0.15	−0.88	p=0.72, R^2=0.02	p=0.69	p=0.88
50-year-olds, no overlap	6	−0.80	−4.24	p=0.06, R^2=0.63	p=0.05	p=0.93
70-year-olds, no overlap	6	−0.74	−2.63	p=0.09, R^2=0.54	p=0.14	p=0.09

Notes: Correlation coefficient, Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r); regression coefficient, linear regression coefficient; time overlap, the incidence rates for GCA and HZ were from the same time period; no overlap, the incidence rates for GCA and HZ were from different time periods.

Abbreviations: GCA, giant cell arteritis; HZ, herpes zoster; SE, standard error.

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