A Country Pandemic Risk Exposure Measurement Model

Figures & data

Table 1 Factor Variables Identified

Nr.	Factor Variables	Literature Support
Q1	Level of expertise and knowledge (LEK)	Bezzina & Grima, 2012^Citation7
Q2	Population density	Calka et al, 2017;^Citation8 Noy et al, 2020;^Citation9 Jakovljevic et al, 2017^Citation10
Q3	Night-time light intensity	Noy et al, 2020;^Citation9 Florida et al, 2012;^Citation11 Mellander et al, 2015^Citation12
Q4	Ecological footprint	GFN, 2020^Citation13
Q5	Transport network density	Luke & Rodrigue, 2008;^Citation14 Inglesby & Adalja, 2019^Citation15
Q6	Net migration	Ivakhnyuk, 2020;^Citation16 Jakovljevic et al, 2018^Citation17
Q7	Gross Domestic Product (GDP)	Dynan & Sheiner, 2018^Citation18
Q8	Gross Domestic Product per capita	Bruederl & Hodler, 2018;^Citation19 Pe ´rez-Velasco, 2012;^Citation20 Jakovljevic & Getzen, 2016^Citation21
Q9	Human Development Index (HDI)	Abdul-Fadl & Sarhan, 2020;^Citation22 WEF, 2020^Citation23
Q10	Tourism	Zeng et al, 2005^Citation24
Q11	Old population male over 65	Acemoglu & Restrepo, 2017;^Citation25 Rupeika-Apoga et al, 2018^Citation26
Q12	Old population female over 65	Acemoglu & Restrepo, 2017;^Citation25 Rupeika-Apoga et al, 2018^Citation26
Q13	Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)	Reidpath & Allotey, 2003;^Citation27 Stockwell et al, 1987^Citation28
Q14	Hospital beds available per capita	Keegan at al., 2019;^Citation29 Dieleman at al., 2017^Citation30
Q15	Out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPs)	WHO, 2020;^Citation31 WB, 2020;^Citation32 Grima et al, 2018^Citation33
Q16	Health care expenditure % to GDP	Xu et al, 2011;^Citation34 Dieleman at al., 2017 B;^Citation35 Jakovljevic & Ogura, 2016^Citation36
Q17	Telecommunication	Oliver et al, 2020^Citation37
Q18	Public and private debt to GDP	Bohn, 1988;^Citation38 Missale, 1999^Citation39
Q19	Government expenditure to GDP	Gounder & Saha, 2007;^Citation40 Moradbeigi & Law, 2014^Citation41
Q20	Socio-cultural disparity	Alesina, et al, 2003^Citation42
Q21	Inflation rate	Bezzina & Grima, 2012;^Citation7 Treaty on the European Union;^Citation43 Eurostat^Citation44
Q22	Unemployment rate	OECD, 2020;^Citation45 Di Maggio& Kermani, 2016^Citation46
Q23	Current Account Balance to GDP	Edwards, 2007^Citation47
Q24	Population of Males below 65	Acemoglu & Restrepo, 2017;^Citation25 Rupeika-Apoga et al, 2019^Citation48
Q25	Population of Females below 65	Acemoglu & Restrepo, 2017;^Citation25 Rupeika-Apoga et al, 2019^Citation48
Q26	Gender	Maestas et al, 2016^Citation49
Q27	Level of experienced hazard (LEH)	Bezzina & Grima, 2012^Citation7,Citation50,Citation51

Table 2 Factors

	Factor 1	Factor 2	Factor 3	Factor 4
Q11. Old population male over 65		0.809
Q12. Old population female over 65		0.804
Q10. Tourism (Contribution of tourism to GDP)		0.801
Q14. Hospital beds available per capita		0.730
Q9. Human Development Index		0.659
Q13. Infant Mortality Rate		0.606
Q8. Gross Domestic Product per capita		0.524
Q15. Out-of-Pocket expenditure (OOPs)		0.420
Q3. Night-time light intensity	0.812
Q5. Transport network density (road, airport, railroad, waterway)	0.790
Q4. Ecological footprint (human demand on natural capital)	0.746
Q2. Population density	0.669
Q21. Inflation rate				0.907
Q22. Unemployment rate				0.850
Q23. Current account balance to GDP				0.839
Q19. Government expenditure to GDP			0.870
Q18. Public and private debt to GDP			0.697	0.338
Q17. Telecommunication (use of the internet and mobile phones)			0.615
Q20. Socio-cultural disparity			0.584

Table 3 Factors and Reliability Values

Factors	Number of Question	Cronbach’s Alpha	Eigen Values	% of Variance Explained
Factor 1 [Q2+Q3+Q4+Q5]/4	4	0.765	2.836	14.929
Factor 2[Q8+Q9+Q10+Q11+Q12+Q13+Q14+Q15]/8	8	0.828	4.281	22.534
Factor 3 [Q17+Q18+Q19+Q20]/4	4	0.688	1.482	7.799
Factor 4 [Q21+Q22+Q23]/3	3	0.861	2.616	13.769

Table 4 Hierarchical Regression Analysis

Model	Independent Variables	R	R2	Adjusted R2	F	df	B	β	p
1	Constant F1 F2 F3 F4	0.802	0.643	0.642	1271.04	4/2825	−.434 1.219 0.074 0.108 -0.245	0.760 0.045 0.056 -0.176	0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2	Constant F1 F2 F3 F4 LEK	0.809	0.655	0.655	1072.85	5/2824	−.466 1.147 0.043 -0.227 0.156 0.085	0.715 0.026 -0.163 0.124 0.044	0.000 0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000

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