Efficacy of COVID-19 Public Health Measures in Philadelphia, New York City, Baltimore, and Chicago

Figures & data

Table 1 City Demographics

Geographic Data	Philadelphia	New York City	Baltimore	Chicago
Population
Population Size	1,603,797	8,804,190	585,708	2,746,388
Population per square mile	11,379.5	27,012.4	7671.5	11,841.8
Age
% Persons under 18 years	21.6	20.7	20.5	20.5
% Persons over 65 years	14.0	14.9	14.0	12.7
Economy
Median Household Income (dollars)	49,127	67,046	52,164	62,097
% Persons in poverty	19.4	17.3	20.0	17.3

Table 2 Dates of COVID-19 Policies

Policies	Philadelphia	New York City	Baltimore	Chicago
Shutdown restaurants/bars (SRB)	3/16/20	3/16/20	3/19/20	3/16/20
Stay-at-Home Order (SAH)	3/23/20	3/20/20	3/30/20	3/26/20
Mask Mandate (MM)	4/19/20	4/17/20	4/15/20	4/30/20
Stage 1 Reopening (S1R)	6/5/20	6/8/20	6/8/20	6/3/20
Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions (RC)	11/20/20	11/13/20	11/12/20	11/16/20
Suspension of Indoor Dining (SID)	11/20/20	12/14/20	12/11/20	10/30/20
Spring Reopening (SR)	1/16/21	2/12/21	1/21/21	2/11/21

Table 3 COVID-19 Cases % Change

Policies	Philadelphia			New York City			Baltimore			Chicago
	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Shutdown restaurants/bars (SRB)	1206%	1437%	683%	189%	83%	−59%	1000%	2525%	700%	463%	710%	1144%
Stay-at-Home Order (SAH)	245%	202%	44%	41%	−41%	−75%	165%	61%	870%	39%	53%	−39%
Mask Mandate (MM)	−37%	24%	−34%	−47%	−90%	−88%	−62%	3%	−43%	−39%	−81%	−78%
Stage 1 Reopening (S1R)	−2%	−48%	−35%	−11%	−3%	−43%	−37%	6%	145%	−22%	−37%	−66%
Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions (RC)	7%	−66%	−46%	54%	49%	249%	35%	39%	17%	−6%	−46%	−60%
Suspension of Indoor Dining (SID)	7%	−66%	−46%	50%	44%	−7%	−44%	2%	−70%	44%	−52%	−9%
Spring Reopening (SR)	−25%	−4%	55%	−2%	−43%	−29%	−49%	−63%	−55%	−36%	−42%	97%

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Table 4 COVID-19 Hospitalizations % Change

Policies	Philadelphia			New York City			Baltimore			Chicago
	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Shutdown restaurants/bars (SRB)	N/A	N/A	N/A	443%	154%	−64%	N/A	N/A	N/A	841%	782%	541%
Stay-at-Home Order (SAH)	674%	647%	185%	130%	−28%	−84%	233%	388%	317%	16%	−13%	−42%
Mask Mandate (MM)	−35%	−1%	−61%	−67%	−90%	−92%	37%	30%	−30%	−22%	−68%	−82%
Stage 1 Reopening (S1R)	2%	−30%	−2%	−19%	−45%	−61%	−48%	−60%	−41%	−44%	−46%	−59%
Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions (RC)	25%	−45%	−50%	75%	154%	336%	51%	43%	92%	−15%	−44%	−63%
Suspension Of Indoor Dining (SID)	25%	−45%	−50%	34%	68%	32%	−3%	33%	4%	30%	7%	−24%
Spring Reopening (SR)	−27%	−44%	4%	−4%	−26%	−42%	−15%	−40%	−41%	−57%	−61%	45%

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Table 5 COVID-19 Deaths % Change

Policies	Philadelphia			New York City			Baltimore			Chicago
	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Shutdown restaurants/bars (SRB)	N/A	N/A	N/A	3963%	5563%	975%	N/A	N/A	N/A	1100%	3000%	4800%
Stay-at-Home Order (SAH)	N/A	N/A	N/A	960%	749%	17%	N/A	N/A	N/A	1150%	1800%	1050%
Mask Mandate (MM)	−17%	−59%	−100%	−45%	−80%	−96%	−375%	−100%	−175%	13%	−48%	−83%
Stage 1 Reopening (S1R)	−100%	−100%	−100%	−56%	−64%	−95%	200%	200%	0%	5%	−75%	−85%
Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions (RC)	133%	117%	0%	200%	400%	1360%	500%	0%	100%	−15%	−4%	−58%
Suspension Indoor Dining (SID)	133%	117%	0%	47%	123%	170%	−111%	−111%	−33%	400%	325%	425%
Spring Reopening (SR)	50%	114%	−100%	−12%	−48%	−54%	−100%	−100%	−100%	−11%	−78%	−44%

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Figure 1 New COVID-19 cases 7 day average.

Abbreviations: SRB, Shutdown restaurants/bars; SAH, Stay-at-Home Order; MM, Mask Mandate; S1R, Stage 1 Reopening; RC, Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions; SID, Suspension of Indoor Dining; SR, Spring Reopening.

Figure 2 COVID-19 hospitalizations 7 day average.

Abbreviations: SRB, Shutdown restaurants/bars; SAH, Stay-at-Home Order; MM, Mask Mandate; S1R, Stage 1 Reopening; RC, Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions; SID, Suspension of Indoor Dining; SR, Spring Reopening.

Figure 3 COVID-19 deaths 7 day average.

Abbreviations: SRB, Shutdown restaurants/bars; SAH, Stay-at-Home Order; MM, Mask Mandate; S1R, Stage 1 Reopening; RC, Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions; SID, Suspension of Indoor Dining; SR, Spring Reopening.

Table 6 Philadelphia COVID-19 Cases % Change

Policies	Date	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Shutdown restaurants/bars	3/16/20	1206%	1437%	683%
Stay-at-Home order	3/23/20	245%	202%	44%
Mask mandate	4/19/20	−37%	24%	−34%
Stage 1 Reopening	6/5/20	−2%	−48%	−35%
Green phase of reopening	7/3/20	80%	−29%	66%
Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions	11/20/20	7%	−66%	−46%
Suspension of Indoor Dining	11/20/20	7%	−66%	−46%
Spring Reopening	1/16/21	−25%	−4%	55%
Retail and dining can expand maximum	3/1/21	38%	85%	9%

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Table 7 Philadelphia COVID-19 Hospitalizations % Change

Policies	Date	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Shutdown restaurants/bars	3/16/20	N/A	N/A	N/A
Stay-at-Home Order	3/23/20	674%	647%	185%
Mask Mandate	4/19/20	−35%	−1%	−61%
Stage 1 Reopening	6/5/20	2%	−30%	−2%
Green phase of reopening	7/3/20	58%	−23%	74%
Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions	11/20/20	25%	−45%	−50%
Suspension of Indoor Dining	11/20/20	25%	−45%	−50%
Spring Reopening	1/16/21	−27%	−44%	4%
Retail and dining can expand maximum	3/1/21	27%	1%	N/A

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Table 8 Philadelphia COVID-19 Deaths % Change

Policies	Date	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Shutdown restaurants/bars	3/16/20	N/A	N/A	N/A
Stay-at-Home Order	3/23/20	N/A	N/A	N/A
Mask Mandate	4/19/20	−17%	−59%	−100%
Stage 1 Reopening	6/5/20	−100%	−100%	−100%
Green phase of reopening	7/3/20	N/A	N/A	N/A
Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions	11/20/20	133%	117%	0%
Suspension of Indoor Dining	11/20/20	133%	117%	0%
Spring Reopening	1/16/21	50%	114%	−100%
Retail and dining can expand maximum	3/1/21	−100%	−100%	N/A

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Figure 4 Philadelphia new COVID-19 cases 7 day average.

Figure 5 Philadelphia COVID-19 hospitalizations 7 day average.

Figure 6 Philadelphia COVID-19 deaths 7 day average.

Table 9 NYC COVID-19 Cases % Change

Policies	Date	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Ban nonessential foreign travel	3/8/20	12,186%	28,671%	5800%
NYC declares State of Emergency	3/12/20	1321%	951%	247%
NYC cancels events larger than 500 people	3/13/20	727%	366%	108%
NYC closes all schools	3/16/20	189%	83%	−59%
Shutdown restaurants/bars	3/16/20	189%	83%	−59%
Stay-at-Home Order	3/20/20	41%	−41%	−75%
Mask Mandate	4/17/20	−47%	−90%	−88%
NYC allows gatherings of up to 10 people	5/24/20	−58%	−18%	−34%
Stage 1 Reopening	6/8/20	−11%	−3%	−43%
NYC enters Phase 2 of reopening allowing for office work	6/22/20	8%	−18%	−37%
NYC enters Phase 3 of reopening allowing for spas, parlors, and salons to reopen	7/7/20	−26%	−37%	−66%
NYC enters Phase 4 of reopening allowing higher education and outdoor entertainment	7/22/20	−10%	−24%	−52%
Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions	11/13/20	54%	45%	249%
NYC schools go virtual	11/19/20	56%	38%	150%
Suspension of Indoor Dining	12/14/20	50%	44%	−7%
Spring Reopening	2/12/21	−2%	−43%	−29%
Outdoor gatherings of 25 people allowed	3/22/21	−12%	−62%	−91%
State opens arts and entertainment venues at 33% capacity	4/2/21	−30%	−79%	−89%

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Table 10 NYC COVID-19 Hospitalizations % Change

Policies	Date	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Ban nonessential foreign travel	3/8/20	4167%	8689%	861%
NYC declares State of Emergency	3/12/20	1327%	866%	68%
NYC cancels events larger than 500 people	3/13/20	930%	524%	−25%
NYC closes all schools	3/16/20	443%	154%	−64%
Shutdown restaurants/bars	3/16/20	443%	154%	−64%
Stay-at-Home Order	3/20/20	130%	−28%	−84%
Mask Mandate	4/17/20	−67%	−90%	−92%
NYC allows gatherings of up to 10 people	5/24/20	−39%	−50%	−64%
Stage 1 Reopening	6/8/20	−19%	−45%	−61%
NYC enters phase 2 of reopening allowing for office work	6/22/20	10%	−20%	−38%
NYC enters phase 3 of reopening allowing for spas, parlors, and salons to reopen	7/7/20	−49%	−28%	−53%
NYC enters phase 4 of reopening allowing higher education and outdoor entertainment	7/22/20	−3%	−23%	−48%
Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions	11/13/20	75%	154%	336%
NYC schools go virtual	11/19/20	59%	80%	238%
Suspension of Indoor Dining	12/14/20	34%	68%	32%
Spring Reopening	2/12/21	−4%	−26%	−42%
Outdoor gatherings of 25 people allowed	3/22/21	−20%	−65%	−88%
State opens arts and entertainment venues at 33% capacity	4/2/21	−26%	−73%	−100%

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Table 11 NYC COVID-19 Deaths % Change

Policies	Date	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Ban nonessential foreign travel	3/8/20	N/A	N/A	N/A
NYC declares State of Emergency	3/12/20	N/A	N/A	N/A
NYC cancels events larger than 500 people	3/13/20	N/A	N/A	N/A
NYC closes all schools	3/16/20	3963%	5563%	975%
Shutdown restaurants/bars	3/16/20	3963%	5563%	975%
Stay-at-Home Order	3/20/20	960%	749%	17%
Mask Mandate	4/17/20	−45%	−80%	−96%
NYC allows gatherings of up to 10 people	5/24/20	−48%	−60%	−83%
Stage 1 Reopening	6/8/20	−56%	−64%	−95%
NYC enters phase 2 of reopening allowing for office work	6/22/20	−65%	−59%	−82%
NYC enters phase 3 of reopening allowing for spas, parlors, and salons to reopen	7/7/20	0%	−17%	−50%
NYC enters phase 4 of reopening allowing higher education and outdoor entertainment	7/22/20	−14%	−57%	−29%
Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions	11/13/20	200%	400%	1360%
NYC schools go virtual	11/19/20	100%	244%	722%
Suspension of Indoor Dining	12/14/20	47%	123%	170%
State reopens indoor dining 25% capacity	2/12/21	−12%	−48%	−54%
Outdoor gatherings of 25 people allowed	3/22/21	0%	−32%	−83%
State opens arts and entertainment venues at 33% capacity	4/2/21	−44%	−49%	−100%

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Figure 7 New York City new COVID-19 cases 7 day average.

Figure 8 New York City COVID-19 hospitalizations 7 day average.

Figure 9 New York City COVID-19 deaths 7 day average.

Table 12 Baltimore COVID-19 Cases % Change

Policies	Date	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Shutdown restaurants/bars	3/19/20	1000%	2525%	700%
Stay-at-Home Order	3/30/20	165%	61%	870%
Mask Mandate	4/15/20	−62%	3%	−43%
Cancellation of all events larger than 250 people	5/20/20	−25%	−79%	−4%
Continuation of governor stay-at-home order	5/29/20	−78%	−76%	−45%
City allows outdoor dining	5/29/20	−78%	−76%	−45%
Stage 1 Reopening	6/8/20	−37%	6%	145%
Retail open 50% capacity	6/12/20	−18%	144%	278%
Phase 2 reopening allows non-essential businesses to open and expands capacity	6/22/20	50%	124%	129%
Private indoor gatherings 50% allowed	6/26/20	129%	249%	−7%
Rescind stay-at-home order	6/29/20	−6%	51%	−16%
City bans indoor bars and restaurants	7/24/20	3%	−47%	−79%
City reopens indoor dining	8/7/20	−41%	−59%	−80%
Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions	11/12/20	35%	39%	17%
Suspension of Indoor Dining	12/11/20	−44%	2%	−70%
Spring Reopening	1/21/21	−49%	−63%	−55%
City eases covid restrictions	2/22/21	80%	210%	N/A

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Table 13 Baltimore COVID-19 Hospitalizations % Change

Policies	Date	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Shutdown restaurants/bars	3/19/20	N/A	N/A	N/A
Stay-at-Home Order	3/30/20	233%	388%	317%
Mask Mandate	4/15/20	37%	30%	−30%
Cancellation of all events larger than 250 people	5/20/20	−18%	−56%	−68%
Continuation of governor stay-at-home order	5/29/20	−38%	−69%	−46%
City allows outdoor dining	5/29/20	−38%	−69%	−46%
Stage 1 Reopening	6/8/20	−48%	−60%	−41%
Retail open 50% capacity	6/12/20	−52%	−52%	−35%
Phase 2 reopening allows non-essential businesses to open and expands capacity	6/22/20	−18%	1%	−20%
Private indoor gatherings 50% allowed	6/26/20	0%	59%	15%
Rescind stay-at-home order	6/29/20	−1%	83%	−3%
City bans indoor bars and restaurants	7/24/20	1%	−33%	−53%
City reopens indoor dining	8/7/20	−29%	−37%	−45%
Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions	11/12/20	51%	43%	92%
Suspension of Indoor Dining	12/11/20	−3%	33%	4%
Spring Reopening	1/21/21	−15%	−40%	−41%
City eases covid restrictions	2/22/21	−8%	−4%	N/A

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Table 14 Baltimore COVID-19 Deaths % Change

Policies	Date	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Shutdown restaurants/bars	3/19/20	N/A	N/A	N/A
Stay-at-Home Order	3/30/20	N/A	N/A	N/A
Mask Mandate	4/15/20	−375%	−100%	−175%
Cancellation of all events larger than 250 people	5/20/20	−50%	−100%	−33%
Continuation of governor stay-at-home order	5/29/20	−75%	−75%	−75%
City allows outdoor dining	5/29/20	−75%	−75%	−75%
Stage 1 Reopening	6/8/20	200%	200%	0%
Retail open 50% capacity	6/12/20	50%	−50%	−50%
Phase 2 reopening allows non-essential businesses to open and expands capacity	6/22/20	67%	−67%	0%
Private indoor gatherings 50% allowed	6/26/20	33%	0%	−100%
Rescind stay-at-home order	6/29/20	N/A	N/A	N/A
City bans indoor bars and restaurants	7/24/20	−67%	−100%	−133%
City reopens indoor dining	8/7/20	200%	0%	−100%
Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions	11/12/20	500%	0%	100%
Suspension of Indoor Dining	12/11/20	−111%	−111%	−33%
Spring Reopening	1/21/21	−100%	−100%	−100%
City eases covid restrictions	2/22/21	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Figure 10 Baltimore new COVID-19 cases 7 day average.

Figure 11 Baltimore COVID-19 hospitalizations 7 day average.

Figure 12 Baltimore COVID-19 deaths 7 day average.

Table 15 Chicago COVID-19 Cases % Change

Policies	Date	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Shutdown restaurants/bars	3/16/20	463%	710%	1144%
Closure of schools	3/17/20	410%	607%	435%
Stay-at-Home Order	3/26/20	39%	53%	−39%
Mask Mandate	4/30/20	−39%	−81%	−78%
City extends stay-at-home order	5/29/20	−46%	−76%	−28%
Stage 1 Reopening	6/3/20	−22%	−37%	−66%
City allows religious gatherings at 50 people	6/6/20	−26%	66%	122%
City reopens bars	6/17/20	21%	49%	−45%
City reopens indoor dining at 25% capacity	6/26/20	57%	−56%	88%
Phase 4 reopening allows museums, zoos and theaters	6/26/20	57%	−56%	88%
Reinstate ban on indoor dining and gathering size 10 people	7/20/20	9%	23%	−9%
Suspension of Indoor Dining	10/30/20	44%	−52%	−9%
Reimplementation of COVID-19 Restrictions	11/16/20	−6%	−46%	−60%
City repeals non-essential business curfew	1/31/21	−11%	104%	346%
Spring Reopening	2/11/21	−36%	−42%	97%
City eases COVID restrictions	4/29/21	−41%	−83%	−91%

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Table 16 Chicago COVID-19 Hospitalizations % Change

Policies	Date	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Shutdown restaurants/bars	3/16/20	841%	782%	541%
Closure of schools	3/17/20	459%	431%	255%
Stay-at-Home Order	3/26/20	16%	−13%	−42%
Mask Mandate	4/30/20	−22%	−68%	−82%
City extends stay-at-home order	5/29/20	−50%	−50%	−65%
Stage 1 Reopening	6/3/20	−44%	−46%	−59%
City allows religious gatherings at 50 people	6/6/20	−47%	−18%	−47%
City reopens bars	6/17/20	−17%	−13%	−33%
City reopens indoor dining at 25% capacity	6/26/20	−3%	−45%	3%
Phase 4 reopening allows museums, zoos and theaters	6/26/20	−3%	−45%	3%
Reinstate ban on indoor dining and gathering size 10 people	7/20/20	35%	−9%	30%
Suspension of Indoor Dining	10/30/20	30%	7%	−24%
Reimplementation of COVID-19 restrictions	11/16/20	−15%	−44%	−63%
City repeals non-essential business curfew	1/31/21	−50%	−34%	9%
Spring Reopening	2/11/21	−57%	−61%	45%
City eases COVID restrictions	4/29/21	−2%	−48%	−100%

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Table 17 Chicago COVID-19 Deaths % Change

Policies	Date	14 Day	30 Day	60 Day
Shutdown restaurants/bars	3/16/20	1100%	3000%	4800%
Closure of schools	3/17/20	1500%	3000%	2700%
Stay-at-Home Order	3/26/20	1150%	1800%	1050%
Mask Mandate	4/30/20	13%	−48%	−83%
Stay-at-Home Order	5/29/20	5%	−75%	−85%
Stage 1 Reopening	6/3/20	5%	−75%	−85%
City allows religious gatherings at 50 people	6/6/20	−50%	−75%	−80%
City reopens bars	6/17/20	−38%	−86%	−86%
City reopens indoor dining at 25% capacity	6/26/20	−54%	−54%	−69%
Phase 4 reopening allows museums, zoos and theaters	6/26/20	−54%	−54%	−69%
Reinstate ban on indoor dining and gathering size 10 people	7/20/20	−40%	0%	−20%
Suspension of Indoor Dining	10/30/20	400%	325%	425%
Reimplementation of COVID-19 restrictions	11/16/20	−15%	−4%	−58%
City repeals non-essential business curfew	1/31/21	−44%	−56%	−88%
Spring Reopening	2/11/21	−11%	−78%	−44%
City eases COVID restrictions	4/29/21	0%	−14%	−100%

Notes: Red overlay represents an increase % change. Green overlay represents a decrease % change. Gray overlay represents no % change.

Figure 13 Chicago new COVID-19 cases 7 day average.

Figure 14 Chicago COVID-19 hospitalizations 7 day average.

Figure 15 Chicago COVID-19 deaths 7 day average.