Development of a Nomogram That Predicts the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Coronary Heart Disease

Figures & data

Table 1 Comparison of Clinical Data Between the Two Groups

Items	Non-af Group (1166 cases)	AF group (92 cases)	P value
Age (years, x±s)	58.45±7.96	68.64±6.78	0.026
Male [n(%)]	643 (55.24)	49(53.78)	0.358
Hypertension[n(%)]	522 (44.82)	42 (46.38)	0.354
DM [n(%)]	387 (33.25)	36 (39.24)	0.007
Hyperlipidemia[n(%)]	504(43.32)	41(45.08)	0.128
CMBL [n(%)]	398 (34.25)	38(42.16)	0.028
HF [n(%)]	333(28.64)	31 (34.52)	0.041
VHD [n(%)]	153 (13.28)	17 (19.22)	0.016
Drink [n(%)]	332 (28.58)	32 (35.23)	0.024
Smoke [n(%)]	370(31.18)	33(36.28)	0.044
PH [n(%)]	218(18.79)	22 (24.26)	0.016
MVR (times per minute, x±s)	76.28±3.68	86.25±6.34	0.039
LAD (mm, x±s)	35.22±3.24	44.58±5.86	0.028
LVEDD (mm, x±s)	44.86±3.32	52.24±3.22	0.005
K^+<4 mmol/L[n(%)]	410 (35.28)	37(41.24)	0.018
Course	422(36.28)	44(48.69)	0.036
VST (mm, x±s)	13.16±1.22	11.88±2.52	0.082
CRP (mg/L,x±s)	9.86±2.22	11.28±1.82	0.098
BMI (kg/m2, x±s)	23.88±2.84	25.64±2.68	0.654
HGB (g/L, x±s)	126.58±4.08	128.66±3.02	0.285
WBC (×109/L, x±s)	4.54±1.82	5.32±2.22	0.082
AST (μg/L, x±s)	33.84±2.54	36.62±3.42	0.332
ALT (μg/L, x±s)	30.94±3.22	36.63±2.26	0.042
Cr (μmol/L, x±s)	66.58±2.32	65.28±1.86	0.488

Notes: Count data is represented by the number (percentage) of participants; Measurement data is expressed as mean plus minus standard deviation.

Abbreviations: n(%), number ((percentage); x±s, Mean plus minus standard deviation; Non-af, Non atrial fibrillation; AF, atrial fibrillation; DM, Diabetes mellitus; CMBL, coronary multiple branch lesion; HF, heart failure; VHD, valvular heart disease; MVR, Mean ventricular rate; Drink, having an average of at least one drink per month in the past 12 months, regardless of the type of alcohol consumed. Smoke,≥1 cigarette a day, and the cumulative smoking time was≥6 months. PH, pulmonary hypertension; LAD, left atrial diameter; LVEDD, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter; K⁺< 4 mmol/L, Blood potassium<4 mmol/L; Course: the course of coronary heart disease is more than 5 years; VST, ventricular septal thickness; CRP, C-reactive protein; BMI, Body Mass Index; HGB, haemoglobin; WBC, white blood cell count; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; Cr, creatinine.

Figure 1 Flowchart of research subject screening.

Figure 2 Coefficient path of LASSO regression.

Figure 3 LASSO regression verification results.

Table 2 Multi-Factor Logistic Regression Analysis

Items	β	SE	Wald	OR value	95% CI	P value
Age	0.067	0.016	17.033	1.069	1.036~1.104	0.001
CMBL	0.987	0.343	8.278	2.682	1.370~5.253	0.004
HF	0.647	0.323	4.013	1.909	1.014~3.594	0.045
VHD	0.397	0.309	1.652	1.488	0.812~2.878	0.199
Drink	0.090	0.019	21.847	1.094	1.053~1.135	0.001
Course	0.536	0.259	4.300	1.709	0.930~2.837	0.058
Smoke	0.059	0.438	0.018	1.061	0.449~2.504	0.893
LAD	0.988	0.315	9.836	2.715	1.448~4.977	0.002
LVEDD	0.457	0.216	4.457	1.579	1.033~2.413	0.036
DM	0.026	0.012	4.924	1.026	1.003~1.150	0.026
PH	0.714	0.344	4.305	2.041	1.040~4.006	0.038

Notes: β, partial regression coefficient.

Abbreviations: SE, standard error; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence internal; CMBL, coronary multiple branch lesion; HF, heart failure; VHD, valvular heart disease; MVR, Mean ventricular rate; Drink, having an average of at least one drink per month in the past 12 months, regardless of the type of alcohol consumed; Course, the course of coronary heart disease is more than 5 years; MVR, mean ventricular rate; LAD, left atrial diameter; LVEDD, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter; DM, Diabetes mellitus; PH, pulmonary hypertension.

Figure 4 Importance ranking of risk factors.

Figure 5 The nomogram model for predicting AF risk in CHD patients.

Abbreviations: CMBL, coronary multiple branch lesion; HF, heart failure; Drink, having an average of at least one drink per month in the past 12 months, regardless of the type of alcohol consumed; Course, the course of coronary heart disease is more than 5 years; LAD, left atrial diameter; LVEDD, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter; DM, Diabetes mellitus; PH, pulmonary hypertension.

Figure 6 AUC curve of the nomogram model.

Figure 7 Calibration curve of the nomogram model.

Figure 8 Decision curve of the nomogram model.

Data Sharing Statement

Data and any appendix material related to this article can be obtained from the corresponding author on request.