Figures & data
Figure 1. Example of a calibration plot for a clinical prediction model. Smooth regression is used to characterize the relationship between the probability of the outcome predicted by the model and the actual proportion of patients who experience the outcome. If the smooth relationship (solid line) lies on the 45° line through the origin (y = x, dashed line), then the model is well-calibrated. In this example, the clinical prediction model over-estimates risk for patients whose predicted probability of the outcome is greater than 6%.
