Individual FEV₁ Trajectories Can Be Identified from a COPD Cohort

Figures & data

Table 1. Clinical characteristics of the patient population.

Characteristics	Total
	N = 607
Male	394, (64.9%)
Deceased	87, (14.3%)
Age [yrs]	58, (7)
Duration of COPD [yrs]	8.2, (4.4)
FEV1 [litres] ^1	1.85, (0.7)
FEV1 [%] ^1	55.9, (18.5)
FEV1/FVC [%] ^1	63.2, (13.9)
Measurements/patient	8.4, (5.5)
Follow-up time [yrs]	4.6, (2.9)
Smoking status (current, quit, NA)	185, 319, 103, (30.4%, 52.5%, 17%)
Pack-years	42, (18)
Body Mass Index [kg/m^2]	26.9, (5.4)
Hypertension	272, (44.8%)
Coronary disease	135, (22.4%)
Diabetes	101, (16.6%)

Mean value or percent of total, (standard deviation or percent of total).

¹At the start of follow-up.

Figure 1. Distribution of estimated annual change in FEV₁ among the COPD patients.

Table 2. Comparison of lung function at the beginning of the follow-up, the change during the follow-up and certain demographic characteristics that potentially affect the results among the decliners and non-decliners based on FEV₁.

	Decliner	Non-Decliner
	N = 180	N = 427
	Mean, SD	Mean, SD
FEV1 [l] ^1	1.96, 0.68^*	1.81, 0.71^*
FEV1 [%] ^1	57.8, 16.6	55.1, 18.6
FEV1/FVC [%] ^1	62.7, 15.1	63.4, 18.0
FEV1 decline/year [ml]	78, 33^**	26, 29^**
Males, %	66.1%	64.4 %
Height [m]	1.72, 0.09	1.69, 0.09
Age (years)^1	58, 7	58, 6
Pack-years	44, 16	42, 19
BMI (kg/m^2)	26.4, 5.7	25.6, 5.2

¹At the start of follow-up.

^*≤0.02, ^**≤ 2.2 × 10^-16.

Figure 2. Distribution of estimated annual decline in FEV₁ in the rapid decliners.

Figure 3. A panel chart of FEV₁ slopes for a random sample of study subjects with varying number of measurements available. At 95% probability level HBM identified patients as rapid decliners (black), improvers (white) or patients whose lung function development was considered to present random variation (grey).

Table 3. Clinical characteristics and events associated with the risk of being a rapid FEV₁ decliner.

Characteristic	Odds Ratio	p-value
Emergency visits (>5 visit, N = 77)	2.47, 1.52–4.02	0.0003
Emergency visits (+1 visit)^*	1.06, 1.02–1.10	0.004
Hospitalisations (>1 period, N = 110)	2.43, 1.59–3.72	4.3 × 10^-5
Hospitalisations (+1 period)	1.16, 1.07–1.25	0.0004
Pneumonias (>0 periods, N = 105)	1.82, 1.18–2.82	0.007
Pneumonias (+1 period)	1.37, 1.13–1.67	0.002
Oral corticosteroids (>1 treatment, N = 241)	2.49, 1.69–3.66	3.8 × 10^-6
Oral corticosteroids (+1 treatment)	1.05, 1.02–1.08	0.001
Antibiotics (>5 treatment, N = 165)	2.22, 1.50–3.29	6.9 × 10^-5
Antibiotics (+1 treatment)	1.06, 1.03 - 1.09	0.0001
FEV1 (+1 litre)	1.35, 1.05 - 1.72	0.02
FVC (+1 litre)	1.39, 1.15 - 1.68	0.0007
DLCOc/VA % of predicted (+1%)	0.99, 0.98 - 1.00	0.07

^*Each additional (0+1) visit to the emergency room increased the risk of being a rapid decliner by OR 1.04².

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