Use of media and public-domain Internet sources for detection and assessment of plant health threats

Figures & data

Table 1a. Examples of direct indicators used in the Project Argus Model for use of media and public domain Internet sources

Direct indicators	Code
Confirmed diagnostic results from government recognized official laboratories	D
Specific, unique, or unexpected symptoms or host susceptibility
Incidence
Severity
Crop loss
Yield loss measurements

Table 1b. Examples of indirect indicators used by the Project Argus Biosurveillance System for use of media and public domain Internet sources

Indirect indicators	Examples	Code
Official acknowledgment	An indigenous government communicating threat information to its citizens and trade partners (commerce)	1
	Acceptance or declaration of an event; denial or no response
	Recommendation for a control strategy
Official action	An indigenous government's response to a plant pest and disease outbreak	2
	Official investigations
	Implementation of countermeasures
	Information suppression
	Prosecution of individuals, organizations, or companies relating to activities in black markets
Demand for control and countermeasures	Shifts in supply and demand	3
	Mobilization of resources
	Requests for assistance to control pests
	Seeking behavior as stockpiles deplete (e.g. traveling to acquire food, seed, or pesticides); innovative mitigation behaviors (e.g. use of homemade pesticides)
Local perception of threat	Mention of anxiety; farmer pleas for assistance; increased suicide rates	4
	Hoarding; panic buying
	Loss of confidence in government; news editorials, protests, or rioting
Changes in business practices	Changes in import/export patterns	5
	Changes in choice of crops grown
	Profiteering, black market development, price increases; changes in advertising
Integrity of infrastructure	Market closures; empty store shelves; diminished pesticide, seed, or other critical supplies or delays in distribution; access of stockpiles	6
	Riots; establishment of martial law
	Open rejection by farmers of government recommendations or orders

Table 2. Project Argus Plant Staging Model

Stage	Description	Example
Stage A	Preparatory, conducive or predisposing conditions, pre-epidemic	Public awareness campaigns; import bans; forecasts of reduced crop production
Stage 1	Unifocal plant pest or pathogen outbreak (outbreak in one community)	Pest outbreak destroys crops on several farms in a single village; drought affecting crops in a single village
Stage 2	Multifocal plant pest or pathogen outbreak (outbreak in multiple communities)	A plant pest or disease outbreak affecting more than one village
Stage 3	Multifocal plant pest or pathogen outbreaks with infrastructure strain	Food shortage, food aid requested, or food aid sent because a pest outbreak, drought, or flood has destroyed crops
Stage 4	Multifocal plant pest or pathogen outbreaks with infrastructure collapse	Industry-wide business closure, financial collapse, mass migration, food riots, looting of grain stores, collapse or change of government
Stage R	Recovery of societal stability, end of epidemic	Official statement of recovery; report of people returning to farm land after a massive outbreak has ended and the food supply has been restored

Table 3. Summary of the search results for a case study of brown planthopper and rice grassy stunt or rice ragged stunt in rice in Vietnam and China in 2006–2007

Country	Language	Total articles	Unique articles^1	%
Vietnam	Vietnamese	1,984	123	94.8
Vietnam	English	104	31	5.2
China	Chinese	3,026	81	98.5
China	English	46	4	1.5

¹Unique articles are defined as articles that provide new information and are not reproductions or summaries of other articles.

Table 4. Sources and indicators referenced in open source planthopper-virus case study in Vietnam, 2006–2007*

Citation	Date	Source	Language	Indicator	Stage	Indicator Code
2006a	February 12, 2006	Vietnam News	English	Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) reports BPH infested 65,000 ha in 16 provinces, local agencies implement controls; pesticide price hikes seen.	PS2	1D25
N/A	March 1, 2006 to March 31, 2006	Multiple	Multiple	‘Winter-Spring’ crop harvested; crop loss reported	PS3	D
2006b	April 2, 2006	Thanhnien News	English	MARD announced a 335,000 ton shortfall in the harvest due to the BPH; exports capped at 5M tons.	PS3	1D6
2006c	July 24, 2006	Vietnam Net	English	MARD acknowledges Mekong Delta infested with BPH, RGSV, and RRSV; 2 week increase from 27,000 ha to 38,000 ha affected; issued 70,000 bottles pesticide to farmers; recommended BPH-resistant varieties; destroyed fields over 30% affected; farmers compensated.	PS2	1D222
N/A	October 1, 2006 to October 31, 2006	Multiple	Multiple	‘Summer-Autumn’ crop harvested; crop loss reported	PS3	D
2006d	October 20, 2006	Thanhnien News	English	Local experts warn that the country's food security is in jeopardy; BPH damage > 10% southern crop (65,000 ha); request that infested cropland be left uncultivated largely ignored.	PS3	126
2006e	October 23, 2006	Vietnam Economy	English	The Vietnamese Prime Minister (PM) declared emergency; officials take action; cancelled travel and meetings.	PS3	222
2006f	October 30, 2006	Vietnam Net	English	Over 72,000 of 123,645 ha of the new rice crop in Mekong delta affected by BPH. Farmers refused to destroy infested paddy.	PS3	D6
2006g	November 5, 2006	Thanhnien News	English	PM mobilizes all human resources for pesticide spraying; BPH and RRSV spread to 21 provinces, >500,000 ha rice affected; US €125M in losses.	PS3	3DD
2006h	November 13, 2006	Thanhnien News	English	PM orders ban on export of rice to preserve food security; prevent price hikes, punish offenders. Finance Minister sells rice from national stockpile to stabilize the market.	PS3	526
2006i	November22, 2006	Thanhnien News	English	PM authorizes export of rice to reduce damage to industry but fears 700,000 tons loss of rice production; reduced exports by 500,000 tons, punishes rice speculators.	PSR	562
2007a	February 27, 2007	Vietnam Net	English	MARD urged farmers in Mekong River Delta to destroy rice fields heavily infested by BPH.	PS2	2
2007b	March 12, 2007	Vietnam's Farmer's Union	Vietnamese	MARD officials indicated that BPH/RRSV could affect an area 100 times greater than the previous year.	PS2	1
2007c	March 28, 2007	Radio Free Asia	Vietnamese	The government reconsidered its earlier request to cancel the ‘Summer-Autumn’ rice crop	PS2	2
N/A	April 1, 2007 to May 16, 2007	Multiple	Multiple	19 Vietnamese media reports of escalation of the epidemic.	PS2	D
2007d	April 16, 2007	Tienphong Online	Vietnamese	The United Nations (UN), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) funds a USD €100,000 project to help farmers in the Mekong Delta control rice pests: first indication of international assistance.	PSR	2
2007e	April 19, 2007	Community Party of Vietnam Online Newspaper	Vietnamese	As drought destroyed rice crops, farmers sought off-farm employment.	PS3	4
2007f	May 7, 2007	Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment	Vietnamese	Epidemic 10 times more severe than previous year, 80,000 ha of rice infested with BPH (including 16,000 ha heavily infested at 10,000 BPH/m^2).	PS3	D
2007g	May 9, 2007	Vietnam Net	Vietnamese	Minister of Agriculture and provincial officials help farmers; surveillance, pesticides, and training; farmers abandon fields.	PS3	246
2007h	May 12, 2007	Vietnam News	English	First English report since February on the 2007 BPH epidemic. MARD indicates 80,000 ha rice affected by BPH; MARD encourages local officials to supervise pest management; government attempts to curb price hikes of pesticides and rice.	PS3	1222
N/A	May 18, 2007 to June 25, 2007	Multiple	Multiple	BPH damage escalates in Vietnam; seven articles	PS3	D
2007i	June 26, 2007	Vietnam's Farmer's Union	Vietnamese	Over 18% Spring rice crop in Cau Ke district with RGSV	PS3	D
2007j	July 20, 2007	Baomoi	Vietnamese	BPH infested 126,000 ha of the ‘Spring-Autumn’ paddy harvested; presents threat to 700,000 ha newly planted paddy in the Mekong Delta; BPH flights close businesses, cause auto accidents.	PS3	D56
2007k	August 16, 2007	Nguoi Lao Dong Online	Vietnamese	More than 130,000 ha crop infested by BPH, Mekong Delta.	PS3	D
2007l	October 5, 2007	Vinagency	Vietnamese	PM restricts exports; rice prices rise	PS3	56
2007m	October 8, 2007	Vietnam Economy	English	PM distributes an additional 555 tons of rice from national stockpile to assist farmers who lost their crops to BPH.	PSR	6
2007n	November 8, 2007	Vietnam News	English	Plant protection agencies from 22 southern provinces meet in October to establish disease prevention protocols.	PSR	2
2007o	November 28, 2007	Laodong	Vietnamese	Government distributes 130 tons of rice to help farmers recover from the loss of paddy crop due to BPH.	PSR	6

*Note that this table contains greater detail regarding sources and indicators than is described in the text of the case study.

Table 5. Sources and indicators referenced in open source planthopper-virus case study in China, 2007*

Citation	Date	Source	Language	Indicator	Stage	Indicator code
NA	June 5, 2007 to July 25, 2007	Multiple	Multiple	Planthopper damage spreads across China as reported in 13 articles (species unspecified).	PS2	D
2007p	June 6, 2007	China View	English	Planthoppers infest 1.2 million ha rice in south China, 40% increase from last year. Ministry of Agriculture says planthoppers (species unspecified) flew from abroad 2 weeks earlier than last year.	PS2	D1
2007q	July 25, 2007	Anhui News	English	In Anhui, flooding, pests cause USD €800 million damage; RRSV, RGSV, rice leaf rollers, and planthoppers (species unspecified) affect 2.8 M ha; rice production could drop by 30%–40%.	PS3	D
2007r	July 29, 2007	China Agricultural Product Network	Chinese	Authorities in Sichuan Province activate Level II Emergency Alert.	PS3	2
2007r	August 7, 2007	China Agricultural Product Network	Chinese	Planthoppers (species unspecified) spread to 19 cities and 94 counties threatening 390,000 ha of cropland in Sichuan. The province declares a Level II alert; activates emergency agricultural disaster plans on July 29th including 24-hour headquarter operations, expert analysis, press releases, 1,300 light traps, and USD €1.3 million in funding for BPH control.	PS3	D2
N/A	August 8, 2007 to December 31, 2007	Multiple	Multiple	Over 115 articles report outbreak levels; local and provincial authorities promote measures to prevent outbreaks, including the use of ducks.	PS3	D2
2007s	September 15, 2007	China Agricultural Product Network	Chinese	Hubei spends USD €2.6M on planthopper control; density of planthoppers (mixed species) higher than previous year, yet damage lower than 2006 due to aggressive control.	PS2	2D
2007t	28-September-07	Hubei TV	Chinese	Planthopper densities (species unspecified) in Changsha, Hunan 60% higher than 2006.	PS2	D
2007u	November 7, 2007	Farmer Daily Newspaper	Chinese	Researchers promote pesticide alternatives such as fish, ducks, and light traps to control planthoppers (any species).	PSR	2

*Note that this table contains greater detail regarding sources and indicators than is described in the text of the case study.

Table 6. Summary of direct and indirect indicators obtained from public domain Internet sources for the relationship between ducks and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI H5N1) epidemic in Vietnam, 2006–2007*

Citation	Date	Source	Language	Indicator	Stage	Indicator Code
2006j	December 6, 2006	Foreign Broadcast Service	English	First HPAI H5N1 outbreak of 2006 in Vietnam; >7,000 chicks and ducklings culled; raising ducks was banned in 2005 to curb spread of HPAI H5N1; provincial leaders claim dead birds ‘hatched illegally’.	PS2	D21
2006k	December 27, 2006	The Age (Australia)	English	The government declared the HPAI H5N1 outbreak contained; poultry smuggled from China to Vietnam.	PSR	1532
2007v	February28, 2007	Vietnam Express News	Vietnamese	Movement of poultry in the Mekong Delta banned as free-ranging ducks identified as major source of HPAI H5N1 spread, but lifts ban on hatching ducks. Fifty unvaccinated ducks found dead on farm test positive for H5N1; birds taken from Soc Trang to Tra On to feed in recently harvested fields, just days after a new HPAI H5N1outbreak in North Vietnam.	PS1	2D6
2007w	March 12, 2007	China View	Vietnamese	The strain of HPAI in North Vietnam is the same as China strain.	PS2	D
2007x	June 29, 2007	Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment	Vietnamese	435 H5N1-infected ducks from Mo Dao commune destroyed; hundreds of free-range ducks in Bac Ninh dying; 100 duck carcasses in paddies; no one will admit owning the ducks; contaminated water and slow response concerns.	PS2	2D46
2007y	October 15, 2007	Tienphong Online	Vietnamese	The Vietnamese government launched a campaign to prevent AI along with rice pests and diseases.	PS2	2
2007z	December 20, 2007	Voice of Vietnam	Vietnamese	Residents express health concerns over unvaccinated ducks roaming freely; request government assistance.	PS2	43

*Note that this table contains greater detail regarding sources and indicators than is described in the text of the case study.

Fig. 1. Comparison of dates of Internet media reports and reports from official sources. Data above the diagonal line correspond to the case when a public domain source reports on an event before an official source reports on the same event. Below the line, an official source reports on an event before a public domain source.

Table 7. Validation of public domain Internet media reports by official reports

Date	Public domain Internet media report	Date	Official sources
April 2, 2006	335,000 ton shortfall in harvest, Vietnam (Table 4_2006b)	May 2008	700,000 tons less rice than 2005–2006 17
November 13, 2006	Exports halted in Vietnam (Table 4_2006h)	May 2008	Exports temporarily halted in Vietnam
November 22, 2006	PM fears 700,000 ton loss, exports reinstated (Table 4_2006i)	June 2007	855,000 tons loss in Vietnam 2005–2006 34
July 24, 2006	38,000 ha rice with BPH (Table 4_2006c)	October 2006	BPH, RRSV, RGSV confirmed in Vietnam 26
July 24, 2006	RRSV and RGSV in Vietnam (Table 4_2006c)	May 2008	BPH, RRSV, RGSV confirmed in Vietnam 17
	Pesticides provided and distributed; assistance in control offered; farmers compensated for destroyed crops (Table 4_2006c)	May 2008	€6.6 in farmer assistance in control and training 17
February 28, 2007	Prior to lifting the ban on hatching ducks, farmers continued using free-range waterfowl to control insects in rice fields in Vietnam (Table 6_2007v)	June 2009	People hesitant to present illegal waterfowl for vaccination during Vietnam ban 27
December 27, 06	Concern of smuggled ducks bringing H5N1 from neighboring countries into Vietnam (Table 6_2006k)	March 2010	An exotic clade of H5N1 detected in poultry seized at northeastern ports of entry into Vietnam and, subsequently, in live bird markets near Hanoi underscores need for AI surveillance at borders and markets where smuggled birds may be sold 35
March 12, 2007	Northern Vietnam strain of H5N1 is same as China's (Table 6_2007w)	April 2008	Cambodian strain of H5NI in southern Vietnam and Chinese strain of H5N1 in northern Vietnam due to movement of ducks 28
April 16, 2007	FAO funds €100,000 to help Vietnam rice farmers (Table 4_2007d)	May 2008	FAO funds €100,000 to help Vietnam rice farmers^17
November 5, 2006	€125M rice losses in Vietnam; €>500,000 ha affected in Vietnam (Table 4_2006g)	June 2007	€120M rice losses in South Vietnam 2005–2006 34; >485,999 ha affected South Vietnam 2005–2006 34; 210,000 ha affected in Mekong Delta 2006 36
July 29, 2007	Sichuan Province activates Level II Emergency (Table 5_2007r)	July 2009	Sichuan Province activates Level II Emergency 37
	Sichuan 390,000 ha threatened (Table 5_2007r)	January 2010	Sichuan 390,000 ha threatened 38
June 6, 2007	1.2M ha rice in South China infested with BPH (Table 5_2007p)	June 2007	BPH infested over 1.2 ha of rice in South China by June 6, 2007 39
June 6, 2007	Migration of planthoppers from Vietnam to Southern China 2 weeks earlier than the previous year (Table 5_2007p)	August 2008	Documented BPH migrations from Vietnam to China 2005–2007 40
July 25, 2007	30%–40% losses in Anhui due to BPH (Table_2007q)	July 2007	30%–40% losses in Anhui due to BPH 41
September 28, 2007	Hunan planthopper densities 60% more than 2006 (Table 5_2007t)	December 2007	Changsha city Hunan densities 60% higher than 2006 42

Fig. 2. (a) Stage over time for the 2006–2007 case study of planthopper-virus in Vietnam. (b) Frequency of indirect indicators by stage for the 2006–2007 case study of planthopper-virus in Vietnam.

Fig. 3. (a) Stage over time for the 2007 case study of planthopper-virus in China. (b) Frequency of indirect indicators by stage for the 2007 case study of planthopper-virus in China.

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