The impact of climate change on the expansion of Ixodes persulcatus habitat and the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in the north of European Russia

Figures & data

Table

A. Northern group	B. Central group	C. Southern group
10-Leshukonsky	2-Verkhne-Toemsky	1-Velsky
11-Mezensky	4-Vinogradovsky	3-Vilegodsky
14-Pinezhsky	5-Kargopolsky	6-Konoshsky
16-Primorsky	8-Krasnoborsky	7-Kotlassky
	9-Lensky	17-Ustiansky
	12-Nyandomsky
	13-Onezhsky
	15-Plesetsky
	18-Kholmogorsky
	19-Shenkursky

Fig. 1.  Arkhangelsk Oblast location and AO districts by groups. Districts where ticks were collected are in bold font (Designed in ArcGIS 9.3).

Table 1. The list of meteorological stations in AO

Station name	World meteorological organization number	N, dd. dd	E, dd. dd	Elevation, m	AO districts group
Arhangelsk	225500	64.55	40.46	4	Northern
Dvinskij Bereznik	227620	62.86	42.71	34	Central
Emeck	226560	63.48	41.75	18	Central
Holmogory	225590	64.21	41.66	12	Central
Kalgachikha	226380	63.33	36.73	181	Central
Kargopol	228450	61.5	38.93	126	Southern
Karpogory	226710	63.98	44.45	60	Northern
Kepino	224560	65.38	41.83	74	Northern
Kojnas	225830	64.75	47.65	64	Northern
Konevo	227490	62.13	39.33	100	Central
Konosha	229510	60.96	40.25	224	Southern
Kotlas	228870	61.23	46.71	56	Southern
Lesukonskoe	225730	64.9	45.76	71	Northern
Mezen	224710	65.86	44.21	19	Northern
Moseyevo	224810	65.78	46.18	39	Northern
Njandoma	228540	61.66	40.18	233	Central
Onega	226410	63.9	38.11	13	Central
Pinega	225630	64.7	43.4	31	Northern
Senkursk	227680	62.1	42.9	45	Central
Severodvinsk	225460	64.56	39.83	1	Northern
Sura	226760	63.58	45.63	62	Northern
Turcasovo	226480	63.11	39.28	34	Central
Verhnjaja Tojma	227780	62.23	45.03	58	Central
Velsk	228670	61.08	42.11	91	Southern
Zizgin	224380	65.2	36.81	17	Northern
Jarensk	227980	62.16	49.08	92	Central
Nyuksenitsa	229740	60.41	44.25	137	Southern
Vozega	229540	60.46	40.2	202	Southern

Table 2. Census data on the AO population 6

Year	Population	Year	Population
1990	1,572,233	2000	1,379,733
1991	1,561,772	2001	1,359,777
1992	1,546,208	2002	1,341,541
1993	1,527,902	2003	1,325,289
1994	1,508,073	2004	1,311,233
1995	1,487,116	2005	1,297,956
1996	1,465,475	2006	1,285,779
1997	1,444,381	2007	1,276,032
1998	1,424,010	2008	1,266,956
1999	1,402,242	2009	1,258,242

Fig. 2.  (A) BIR¹⁰ in AO averaged over each decade: 1 <10; 2 10–100; 3 100–1000; 4 >1,000. (B) TBE incidence rate in AO averaged over each decade: 1 0.0–0.1; 2 0.1–1; 3 1–10; 4 10–100.

Table 3. BIR¹⁰and the length of tick bite reporting period for groups of AO districts

	BIR^10			Length of tick-bite reporting period, month
	Northern	Central	Southern	Northern	Central	Southern
1980–1989	0.1	36.2	44.8	0.1	1.9	3.2
1990–1999	2.3	115.1	292.3	0.7	2.5	3.3
2000–2009	28.1	557.0	732.9	2.0	3.8	4.8

Fig. 3.  TBE incidence in AO and in Russia as a whole in 1980—2009.

Table 4. Comparison of mean for decades TBE incidence rate in Russia and in AO

Time period, years	Russia Mean (standard deviation)	AO Mean (standard deviation)	p value for mean
1980–1999	3.34 (1.72)	0.73 (0.93)	<0.0001
2000–2009	3.03 (0.85)	5.76 (2.47)	0.0069

Fig. 4.  Mean annual temperatures (1960–2009) and TBE incidence rates in AO (1980–2009).. Note: AO temperature data for 1971 and 1972 are not available.

Fig. 5.  Mean annual temperatures (1960–2009) and TBE incidence rates (1980–2009) in the (A) southern; (B) central; (C) northern group of AO districts. Note: AO temperature data for 1971 and 1972 are not available.

Table 5. Correlation analysis of the mean annual AO air temperatures and TBE incidence in AO during 1990–2009

Territory	Correlation coefficient	Confidence interval	p value
AO	0.50	0.36–0.64	0.0248
Northern districts	0.50	0.36–0.64	0.0248
Central districts	0.71	0.62–0.81	0.0005
Southern districts	0.45	0.30–0.60	0.0465

Fig. 6.  The results of regression analysis of TBE incidence and mean annual air temperatures in AO in 1980–2009.

Fig. 7.  Sums of annual effective temperatures exceeding 10°C averaged over decades for northern, central, and southern groups of AO districts.

Gray JS, Dautel H, Estrada-Peña A, Kahl O, Lindgren E. Effects of climate change on ticks and tick-borne diseases in Europe. Interdiscip Perspect Infect Dis. 2009; 2009: 593232. Published online 2009January4. 10.3402/gha.v4i0.8448. Available online: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool = pubmed&pubmedid = 19277106. [cited 12 October 2011].

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