The association of meteorological factors and mortality in rural Bangladesh, 1983–2009

Figures & data

Fig. 1.  Association of mortality with minimum, maximum and mean temperature, after adjusting for trend and seasonality.

Table 1. Linear approximation of the association of mortality with minimum, maximum and mean daily temperature, after adjusting for trend and seasonality

	<25% (first quartile)			25%–75% (2nd and 3rd quartile)		>75% (last quartile)
Daily temperature	Temperatures below	Change (%)	95% Confidence Interval	Change (%)	95% Confidence Interval	Temperatures above	Change (%)	95% Confidence Interval	Deviance explained	GCV^2
Maximum	28.2	−0.7 ^1	(−1.5, −0.0)	−0.8	(−1.5, −0.2)	32.9	0.2	(0.1, 0.3)	26.9%	1.1285
Minimum	18.0	−1.1	(−1.8, −0.3)	−1.1	(−1.7, −0.6)	25.9	0.1	(0.0, 0.2)	26.8%	1.1291
Mean	23.3	−1.4	(−2.2, −0.6)	−1.4	(−2.0, −0.7)	29.2	0.2	(0.1, 0.3)	26.8%	1.1283

¹Change less than 0% indicates decrease in mortality risk with increase in temperature, or at lower temperature ranges, decrease in temperature results in increased mortality risk.

²GCV Geometric Coefficient of Variation gives an indication of the ‘variance – mean ratio; higher values indicate higher level of variation.

Fig. 2.  Association of mortality with mean temperature at different time lags, after adjusting for trend and seasonality.

Fig. 3.  Association of mortality with lag 0 and lag 1–5 mean temperature for different strata, after adjusting for trend and seasonality.

Table 2. Linear approximation of the association of mortality with mean temperature at different time lags, after adjusting for trend and seasonality

	<25% (first quartile)			25%–75% (2nd and 3rd quartile)		>75% (last quartile)
Lag	Temperatures below	Change (%)	95% Confidence Interval	Change (%)	95% Confidence Interval	Temperatures above	Change (%)	95% Confidence Interval	Deviance explained (%)	GCV
0–1	23.4	−1.8	(−2.6, −1.0)	−1.8	(−2.5, −1.2)	29	0.20	(0.1, 0.3)	26.9	1.1268
0–2	23.4	−2.0	(−2.8, −1.2)	−2.0	(−2.7, −1.3)	29	0.20	(0.1, 0.3)	27	1.1259
0–3	23.4	−1.9	(−2.8, −1.1)	−2.0	(−2.7, −1.3)	29	0.10	(0.0, 0.2)	27	1.1259
0–4	23.4	−2.2	(−3.0, −1.3)	−2.2	(−2.9, −1.4)	29	0.10	(0.0, 0.2)	27	1.1262
0–5	23.4	−2.4	(−3.3, −1.5)	−2.3	(−3.1, −1.6)	29	0.10	(0.0, 0.2)	27	1.1261
0–6	23.4	−2.3	(−3.2, −1.4)	−2.3	(−3.0, −1.5)	29	0.10	(0.0, 0.2)	27	1.1263
0–7	23.4	−2.1	(−3.0, −1.1)	−2.1	(−2.9, −1.3)	29	0.10	(0.0, 0.2)	27	1.1264
0–8	23.3	−2.2	(−3.2, −1.3)	−2.2	(−3.0, −1.4)	28.9	0.00	(−0.1, 0.1)	27	1.1268
0–9	23.3	−2.2	(−3.2, −1.3)	−2.2	(−3.0, −1.4)	28.9	0.00	(−0.1, 0.1)	27	1.1269
0–10	23.3	−1.9	(−2.9, −0.9)	−1.9	(−2.7, −1.1)	28.9	0.00	(−0.1, 0.1)	27	1.1269
0–14	23.4	−2.1	(−3.1, −1.1)	−2.0	(−2.9, −1.2)	28.9	0.00	(−0.1, 0.1)	27	1.1279
0–21	23.4	−1.3	(−2.3, −0.2)	−1.3	(−2.2, −0.4)	28.9	−0.10	(−0.2, 0.0)	26.8	1.1292

Note: Statistically significant (0.05 level) relative risk estimates are marked in bold.

Table 3. Linear approximation of the association of mortality with combined lag 0 and lag 1–5 mean temperature for different strata, after adjusting for trend and seasonality

	25 percentile		25–75 percentile		75 percentile
	Change (%)	95% CI	Change (%)	95% CI	Change (%)	95% CI
Sub groups
Male	−3.2	(−5.1, −1.3)	−2.9	(−4.6, −1.2)	0.2	(0.0, 0.4)
Female	−2.2	(−4.3, −0.2)	−2.3	(−4.1, −0.5)	0.2	(−0.1, 0.4)
Age groups
Infants	−2.4	(−5.2, 0.5)	−2.3	(−4.8, 0.3)	0.2	(−0.2, 0.5)
1–4	2.9	(−1.1, 7.0)	2.9	(−0.5, 6.6)	0.4	(0.0, 0.9)
5–19	3.6	(−1.8, 9.2)	3.7	(−1.1, 8.7)	−0.2	(−0.8, 0.4)
20–59	−1.6	(−4.8, 1.6)	−1.7	(−4.4, 1.2)	0.0	(−0.4, 0.4)
60+	−5.4	(−7.4, −3.5)	−5.3	(−7.0, −3.6)	0.2	(−0.1, 0.4)

Note: Statistically significant (0.05 level) relative risk estimates are marked in bold.

Fig. 4.  Association of mortality with rainfall at different time lags, after adjusting for trend and seasonality.

Fig. 5.  Association of mortality with rainfall for different strata, after adjusting for trend and seasonality.

Table 4. Linear approximation of the association of mortality with rainfall at different time lags, after adjusting for trend and seasonality

	Rainfall below 3 mm		Rainfall between 3 and 100 mm		Rainfall above 100 mm
Lag	Change (%)	95% CI	Change (%)	95% CI	Change (%)	95% CI
0	−1.2	(−4.0, 1.7)	−0.1	(−0.2, 0.0)	0.1	(0.0, 0.2)
0–2	0.0	(−0.2, 0.1)	0.0	(−0.1, 0.1)	0.1	(−0.1, 0.3)
0–3	0.0	(−0.1, 0.2)	0.0	(−0.1, 0.1)	0.1	(−0.1, 0.3)
0–5	0.1	(−0.1, 0.2)	0.0	(−0.1, 0.1)	0.2	(−0.2, 0.5)
0–7	0.0	(−0.2, 0.2)	0.0	(−0.2, 0.2)	0.2	(−0.2, 0.6)
0–10	0.1	(−0.1, 0.3)	0.0	(−0.1, 0.2)	0.3	(−0.2, 0.8)
0–14	0.0	(0.0, 0.0)	0.0	(0.0, 0.1)	0.0	(0.0, 0.1)

Note: Statistically significant (0.05 level) relative risk estimates are marked in bold.

Table 5. Linear approximation of the association of mortality with rainfall for different strata, after adjusting for trend and seasonality

	Rainfall below 3 mm		Rainfall between 3 and 100 mm		Rainfall above 100 mm
	Change (%)	95% CI	Change (%)	95% CI	Change (%)	95% CI
Sub groups
Male	−1.3	(−5.2, 2.7)	−0.1	(−0.3, 0.0)	0.2	(0.0, 0.3)
Female	0.0	(0.0, 0.0)	0.0	(0.0, 0.1)	0.0	(0.0, 0.1)
Age groups
Infants	−1.3	(−7.1, 4.9)	−0.1	(−0.3, 0.0)	0.2	(−0.1, 0.4)
1–4	1.7	(−5.6, 9.5)	−0.2	(−0.4, 0.0)	0.1	(−0.1, 0.4)
5–19	−5.6	(−15.0, 5.0)	−0.3	(−0.6, 0.0)	0.6	(0.2, 0.9)
20–59	−3.3	(−9.4, 3.3)	−0.2	(−0.4, 0.0)	0.2	(−0.1, 0.5)
60+	0.1	(−0.1, 0.2)	0.0	(−0.1, 0.1)	0.2	(−0.2, 0.5)

Note: Statistically significant (0.05 level) relative risk estimates are marked in bold.

Fig. 6.  Seasonality of mortality, adjusting for trend only, and adjusting for weather variables and trend.