The short-term association of temperature and rainfall with mortality in Vadu Health and Demographic Surveillance System: a population level time series analysis

Figures & data

Table 1. Mortality frequencies stratified by groups of age and sex in Vadu HDSS, 2003–2010

Age-group	Daily maximum	Daily minimum	Total mortality
0–4 years	2	0	46
5–19 years	2	0	62
20–59 years	4	0	627
>60 years	13	0	927
Men	8	0	954
Women	10	0	708
Total	18	0	1,662

Table 2. Descriptive statistics of daily meteorologic measurement in Vadu HDSS, 2003–2010

Meteorological variables	Mean (°C)	Maximum (°C)	Minimum (°C)	Std. dev.
Daily maximum temperature	32.2	42.4	21.1	3.9
Daily minimum temperature	18.3	28.0	4.7	4.7
Daily mean temperature	25.2	34.9	15.5	3.2
Rainfall (mm)	1.3	95.0	0.0	6.5

Fig. 1.  Time series plot of daily mortality, daily mean temperature (°C), and rainfall (mm) in Vadu HDSS, 2003–2010.

Fig. 2.  Association of mortality with daily temperature and rainfall in Vadu HDSS, 2003–2010.

Fig. 3.  Association of mortality with daily temperature and rainfall in the age strata of 0–4 years in Vadu HDSS, 2003–2010.

Fig. 4.  Association of mortality with daily temperature and rainfall in the age strata of 5–19 years in Vadu HDSS, 2003–2010.

Fig. 5.  Association of mortality with daily temperature and rainfall in the age strata of 20–59 years in Vadu HDSS, 2003–2010.

Fig. 6.  Association of mortality with daily temperature and rainfall at the age of 60 years in Vadu HDSS, 2003–2010.

Fig. 7.  Association of mortality among men and daily temperature and rainfall in Vadu HDSS, 2003–2010.

Fig. 8.  Association of mortality among women and daily temperature and rainfall in Vadu HDSS, 2003–2010.

Table 3. Relative risks (% per degree increase) and 95% confidence intervals for temperature and rainfall in different lag periods stratified by age (bold indicates significances at 5% level)

Age 0–4 years	RR (%)	CI (%)
Temperature lag 0–1	−18.8	(−24.9, −12.2)
Temperature lag 2–6	66.5	(50.0, 84.9)
Temperature lag 7–13	−29.3	(−36.6, −21.1)
Rainfall lag 0–1	−3.6	(−5.7, −1.5)
Rainfall lag 2–6	0.5	(−1.9, 3.0)
Rainfall lag 7–13	−0.1	(−2.8, 2.5)
Age 5–19 years	RR (%)	CI (%)
Temperature lag 0–1	−2.3	(−10.0, 6.2)
Temperature lag 2–6	7.1	(−9.7, 19.1)
Temperature lag 7–13	15.7	(5.0, 27.5)
Rainfall lag 0–1	1.1	(−1.0, 3.3)
Rainfall lag 2–6	−6	(−1.8, −1.0)
Rainfall lag 7–13	6	(3.0, 9.2)
Age 20–59 years	RR (%)	CI (%)
Temperature lag 0–1	9.4	(3.6, 15.5)
Temperature lag 2–6	−9.5	(−15.5, −3.2)
Temperature lag 7–13	1.8	(−4.1, 8.1)
Rainfall lag 0–1	0.7	(−0.3, 1.9)
Rainfall lag 2–6	−1.1	(−3.0, 7.5)
Rainfall lag 7–13	3	(1.3, 4.0)
Age >60 years	RR (%)	CI
Temperature lag 0–1	2.9	(−2.1, 8.0)
Temperature lag 2–6	−3.3	(−1.8, 2.8)
Temperature lag 7–13	2	(−3.4, 7.8)
Rainfall lag 0–1	−0.5	(−1.7, 0.7)
Rainfall lag 2–6	0.8	(−0.6, 2.2)
Rainfall lag 7–13	0.4	(−1.2, 2.0)

Table 4. Relative risks (% per degree increase) and 95% confidence intervals for temperature and rainfall in different lag periods stratified by sex (bold indicates significances at 5% level)

Men	RR (%)	CI (%)
Temperature lag 0–1	3.1	(−1.7, 8.1)
Temperature lag 2–6	−2.3	(−8.2, 3.8)
Temperature lag 7–13	2	(−3.4, 7.6)
Rainfall lag 0–1	−0.2	(−1.5, 0.9)
Rainfall lag 2–6	0.8	(−0.6, 2.2)
Rainfall lag 7–13	2.2	(−1.4, 1.9)
Women	RR (%)	CI (%)
Temperature lag 2–6	−6.5	(−12.6, 0.1)
Temperature lag 7–13	1.5	(−4.3, 7.7)
Rainfall lag 0–1	0.3	(−0.9, 1.5)
Rainfall lag 7–13	2.3	(0.7, 3.9)