The association of weather and mortality in Bangladesh from 1983–2009

Figures & data

Fig. 1.  Annual pattern of weekly temperature (circle) and rainfall (pyramid), 1983–2009

Fig. 2.  Association of temperature and mortality, after adjusting for trend and seasonality.

Table 1. Linear approximation of the association of mortality with minimum, maximum and mean temperature, after adjusting for time trend and seasonality

	<25% (first quartile)			25%–75% (2nd and 3rd quartile)		>75% (last quartile)
Temperature in °C	Tem^1 <	RR^2 (%)	95% CI^3	RR^2 (%)	95% CI	Tem >	RR^2 (%)	95% CI	% DE^4	GCV^5
Maximum	29.6	−1.8	(−4.1, −0.5)	−2.2	(−4.1, −3.0)	34.0	0.1	(−0.2, +0.4)	13.70	1.1838
Minimum	16.1	−2.2*	(−4.1, −0.3)	−2.2***	(−3.2, −1.1)	25.7	0.3	(−0.1, +0.6)	13.30	1.1892
Mean	23.0	−2.3*	(−4.4, −0.1)	−2.4**	(−3.9, −0.9)	29.6	−2.3*	(−2.6, −2.0)	13.60	1.1858

¹Temperature.

²Change in relative risk in percent.

³95% confidence interval.

⁴Deviance explained.

⁵Geometric coefficient of variation.

*P<0.05, **P<0.01, ***P< 0.001.

Fig. 3.  Association of mortality with mean temperature at different time lags, after adjusting for trend and seasonality.

Table 2. Associations of lag 0–1 mean temperature and mortality for sex and age groups, after adjusting for trend and seasonality, 1983–2009

	Tem^1<25% (first quartile)		Tem^1 25%–75% (2nd and 3rd quartile)		Tem^1>75% (last quartile)
Sex and age group	RR^2 (%)	95% CI^3	RR^2 (%)	95% CI	RR^2 (%)	95% CI	% DE^4	GCV^5
Overall	−2.5*	(−3.5, −1.5)	−2.4**	(−3.9, −0.8)	−0.1	(−0.4, +0.2)	13.60	1.1858
Male	−0.5	(−3.6,+2.6)	−1.0	(−3.2, +1.2)	−0.3	(−0.7, +0.2)	6.02	1.1757
Female	−4.3**	(−7.3, −1.3)	−3.8**	(−5.9, −1.5)	0.0	(−0.5, +0.4)	9.27	1.2252
Age group
Infant	−3.5	(−10.7, +4.2)	−0.9	(−6.2, +4.7)	0.1	(−0.8, +1.1)	10.40	0.6085
1–4	−3.5	(−10.7, +4.2)	−0.9	(−6.2, +.7)	0.1	(−0.8, +1.1)	10.40	0.6085
5–19	9.0*	(0.7, +18.1)	7.6*	(1.6, +13.9)	−0.2	(−1.1, +0.7)	13.60	1.1858
20–59	−6.3**	(−10.6, −1.7)	−4.8**	(−8.0, −1.5)	0.2	(−0.4, +0.9)	3.61	1.1054
60+	−1.0	(−4.3, +2.3)	−2.0	(−4.3, +0.4)	−0.3	(−0.8, +0.2)	4.85	1.2109

¹Temperature.

²Change in relative risk in percent.

³95% confidence interval.

⁴Deviance explained.

⁵Geometric coefficient of variation.

*P<0.05, **P<0.01, ***P<0.001.

Fig. 4.  Association of mortality with rainfall at different time lags, after adjusting for trend and seasonality.

Table 3. Associations of mortality with lag 0–4 rainfall for sex and age groups, after adjusting for trend and seasonality, 1983–2009

	Rainfall<3 mm		Rainfall 3–14 mm		Rainfall>14 mm
Sub group	RR^1 (%)	95% CI^2	RR^1 (%)	95% CI	RR^1 (%)	95% CI	% DE^3	GCV^4
Overall	−7.0***	(−11.7, −2.1)	−1.7***	(−2.7, −0.7)	1.2*	(0.1, +2.2)	17.20	1.1275
Male	−1.8	(−8.2, +5.1)	−0.9	(−2.1, +0.2)	1.2•	(−0.2, +2.5)	5.04	1.1925
Female	−14.0***	(−19.6, −7.9)	−2.8***	(−3.9, −1.6)	1.4•	(−0.1, +2.9)	8.19	1.2288
Age group
Infant	−4.3	(−13.4, +5.7)	−1.4	(−3.1, +0.4)	1.0	(−1.0, +3.0)	16.0	1.2438
1–4	3.8	(−11.8, +22.1)	2.2	(−0.5, +5.0)	3.8*	(0.7, +6.9)	13.0	0.61279
5–19	15.7•	(−0.4, +34.3)	4.0**	(1.3, +6.8)	−2.3	(−5.2, +0.6)	8.65	0.68735
20–59	−10.5*	(−19.6, −0.3)	−2.2*	(−4.0, −0.4)	2.0•	(−0.1, +4.1)	1.75	1.1068
60+	−12.0**	(−18.5, +5.0)	−3.0***	(−4.2, −1.7)	1.7*	(0.2, +3.3)	4.14	1.2463

¹Change in relative risk in percent.

²95% confidence interval.

³Deviance explained.

⁴Geometric coefficient of variation.

•P<0.1, *P<0.05, **P<0.01, ***P<0.001.