Climate change and natural disasters – integrating science and practice to protect health

Figures & data

Fig. 1.  Classification of natural disasters (5). Marked with red rectangles are those groups of disasters, which can be influenced by climate change.

Fig. 2.  Conceptual framework of the link between natural and man-made climatic influences to disaster-related health risks. Based on SREX 2012 report, but modified and expanded.

Table 1. Observed changes in extreme weather and climate events since 1950

Event	Global change	Confidence	Regional changes	Confidence
Warm days and nights	Increase	Very likely	Increase at the continental scale in North America, Europe, and Australia	Likely
			Warming trend in daily temperature extremes in Asia	Medium
			Warming trend in daily temperature extremes in Africa and South America	Low to medium, depending on the region
Cold days and nights	Decrease	Very likely	Decrease at the continental scale in North America, Europe, and Australia	Likely
Length or number of heat waves			Increase in many regions with sufficient data	Medium
Heavy precipitation events			More regions have experienced increases than decreases, although there are strong regional and sub-regional variations	Likely
Tropical cyclone activity (intensity, frequency, duration)				Low confidence after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities
Drought			Intense and longer droughts in southern Europe and west Africa	Medium
			Less frequent, less intense, or shorter in central North America and northwestern Australia
Extreme coastal high water	Increase related to an increase in mean sea level			Likely

Table 2. Hydro-meteorological disasters by type of health impact and their impact on the attainment of the millennium development goals (MDGs)

	Stroms	Floods	Heart	Drought	MDG
No. of deaths	Few	Many	Moderate	Many	5
No. of severe injuries	Few	Few	n.a.	n.a.
Pregnancy/delivery	Low	Moderate	Moderate	Likely	4
Education	Low	Moderate	Low	Moderate	3
NCDs	Widespread	Widespread	Widespread	Widespread	n.a.
Pests and vectors	Widespread	Widespread	Unlikely	Low	7
Food scarcity	Low	Moderate	Low	Likely	2
Risk of epidemics	Unlikely	Moderate	Unlikely	Unlikely
Clean water	Widespread	Widespread	Unlikely	Widespread	7
Sanitation	Widespread	Widespread	Unlikely	Unlikely	7
Health infrastructure	Widespread	Widespread	Unlikely	Unlikely	4, 5, 7
Migration	Unlikely	Unlikely	Unlikely	Likely
Loss of shelter	Moderate	Likely	Unlikely	Unlikely

Guha-Sapir D, Vos F, Below R, Ponserre S. Annual disaster statistical review 2011 – the numbers and trends. LouvainBelgium: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. 2012, p. 43.

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