InterVA versus Spectrum: how comparable are they in estimating AIDS mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements?

Figures & data

Table 1 Demographic data used in Spectrum file

	1970	1980	1990	2000	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Total fertility rate based on survey data for Nairobi
	8.06	6.44	4.81	3.19	2.74	2.76	2.78	2.8	2.79	2.77
Life expectancy at birth based on national estimates
Male	49.9	55.3	58.4	59.3	58.9	59	59.2	59.3	59.5	59.7
Female	54.1	59.1	62.2	63.1	62.7	62.9	63.1	63.3	63.5	63.8
In-migration (net change in the number of persons migrating to Nairobi per year)
Male	11,800	11,800	11,800	11,800	11,800	11,800	11,800	11,800	11,800	11,800
Female	4,750	6,361	7,972	9,583	10,389	10,550	10,711	10,872	11,033	11,194
Adult ART coverage based on national coverage
	0%	0%	0%	0%	26%	40%	50%	63%	68%	70%
Median HIV prevalence from 4 antenatal clinics in Nairobi
			10.30	14.90	9.60	10.10	na	na	8.30	8.00
HIV prevalence from household survey for Nairobi
				9.9 (2003)					7.00

na=not available.

Figure 1 HIV prevalence ages 15–49, by sex, Nairobi, 1990–2010, Spectrum model estimates.

Figure 2 Adult age-specific mortality rates, all causes, both sexes, 2003–2010.

Figure 3 Adult age-specific mortality rates, all causes, by sex, 2003–2010.

Figure 4 Adult age-specific mortality rates, all causes, both sexes, before and after roll-out of ART.

Figure 5 Percentage of AIDS-related deaths from Spectrum and AIDS- and TB-attributed deaths from InterVA, aged 15–59, Nairobi.

Figure 6 Percentage of AIDS-related deaths from Spectrum and deaths attributed to AIDS and TB from InterVA, by year and sex, aged 15–59, Nairobi.