Trends in contraceptive use and distribution of births with demographic risk factors in Ethiopia: a sub-national analysis

Figures & data

Table 1 Trends in TFR for births in the preceding 3 years by region and residence across time, Ethiopia DHS 2000 to 2011

Characteristic	TFR in 2000 (95% CI)	n	TFR in 2011 (95% CI)	N	Absolute change DHS 2000–2011
Total	5.5 (5.3, 5.7)	15,306	4.8 (4.5, 5.1)	16,438	−0.7
Residence
Urban	3.0 (2.6, 3.4)	4,530	2.6 (−0.6, 5.9)	5,310	−0.4
Rural	6.0 (5.8, 6.3)	10,776	5.5 (5.1, 5.8)	11,128	−0.5
Region
Addis Ababa^a	1.8 (1.2, 2.5)	2,010	1.5 (0.9, 2.1)	1,738	−0.3
Dire Dawa^a	3.5 (2.6, 4.3)	1,048	3.4 (2.6, 4.0)	1,086	−0.1
Harari	4.2 (3.1, 5.3)	906	3.8 (3.1, 4.6)	1,094	−0.4
Gambela	4.4 (2.3, 6.5)	873	4.0 (2.9, 5.0)	1,122	−0.4
Afar	4.4 (3.4, 5.4)	855	4.6 (4.1, 5.1)	1,283	0.2
Benishangul-Gumuz	5.0 (4.3, 5.8)	991	5.2 (4.3, 6.1)	1,257	0.2
Somali	5.1 (3.9, 6.3)	837	7.1 (5.9, 8.2)	913	2.0
Tigray	5.3 (4.7, 6.0)	1,300	5.0 (4.3, 5.6)	1,717	−0.4
Amhara	5.5 (5.0, 6.0)	1,903	4.2 (3.7, 4.6)	2,077	−1.4^b
SNNP	5.6 (5.2, 5.9)	2,017	4.9 (4.3, 5.4)	2,027	−0.7
Oromia	6.1 (5.6, 6.5)	2,566	5.6 (4.9, 6.3)	2,124	−0.4

^aCity administration councils; ^bstatistically significant. n=number of women (un-weighted). TFR, total fertility rate; CI, confidence interval; DHS, Demographic and Health Survey; SNNP, Southern Nations and Nationalities People.

Table 2 Trends in mCPR by region and residence across time, Ethiopia DHS 2000 to 2011

Characteristic	mCPR in 2000 (95% CI)	n	mCPR in 2011 (95% CI)	n	Absolute change DHS 2000–2011
Total	6.3 (5.2, 7.6)	9,380	27.3 (24.9, 29.9)	10,204	21.0^a
Residence
Urban	28.3 (24.4, 32.5)	1,843	49.5 (45.6, 53.3)	2,422	21.2^a
Rural	3.3 (2.6, 4.1)	7,537	22.5 (20.1, 25.1)	7,782	19.2^a
Region
Addis Ababa^b	34.3 (30.7, 38.1)	670	56.3 (52.4, 60.2)	634	22.0^a
Dire Dawa^b	23.5 (12.6, 27.7)	526	31.7 (24.6, 39.8)	626	8.2
Harari	19.0 (12.6, 27.7)	482	31.5 (25.4, 38.3)	635	12.5
Gambela	12.3 (7.8, 18.9)	656	33.2 (24.2, 43.6)	768	20.9^a
Afar	7.4 (3.9, 13.6)	619	9.1 (5.4, 14.8)	960	1.7
Benishangul-Gumuz	8.5 (5.8, 12.3)	711	26.3 (19.9, 33.9)	904	17.8^a
Somali	2.4 (0.5, 10.3)	569	3.8 (1.6, 8.6)	664	1.4
Tigray	9.3 (5.5, 15.3)	868	21.2 (17.1, 26.0)	984	11.9^a
Amhara	6.6 (4.7, 9.3)	1,315	33.0 (28.6, 37.8)	1,331	26.4^a
SNNP	5.0 (3.0, 8.3)	1,312	24.7 (20.1, 29.9)	1,295	19.7^a
Oromia	4.3 (2.8, 6.6)	1,652	24.9 (20.6, 29.8)	1,403	20.6^a

^aStatistically significant; ^bcity administration councils. n=number of women (un-weighted). mCPR, modern contraceptive prevalence rate; CI, confidence interval; SNNP, Southern Nations and Nationalities People; DHS, Demographic and Health Survey.

Fig. 1 Relationship between changes in mCPR and TFR for all regions between 2000 and 2011.

Fig. 2 Distribution of births in the preceding 5 years by risk factor and TFR across regions, Ethiopia DHS2011.

Fig. 3 Distribution of births in the preceding 5 years by single risk factor, Ethiopia DHS 2011.

Table 3 Trends in proportion of births in the preceding 5 years for which the birth risk is avoidable by region, Ethiopia DHS 2000 to 2011

	2000			2011
Region	n	%	95% CI	n	%	95% CI
Tigray	1,365	68.8	(67.0, 70.7)	1,984	68.1	(66.1, 70.0)
Afar	192	74.2	(71.2, 77.1)	2,046	78.1	(75.9, 80.2)
Amhara	6,037	71.3	(69.7, 72.7)	2,443	70.6	(68.3, 72.8)
Oromia	8,761	75.3	(73.5, 77.0)	2,914	74.2	(72.3, 76.1)
Somali	288	81.6	(79.8, 83.3)	2,024	82.5	(80.9, 84.0)
Benishangul-Gumuz	204	73.4	(70.9, 75.8)	1,857	75.7	(73.1, 78.2)
SNNP	4,411	71.5	(69.8, 73.2)	2,868	72.4	(70.7, 73.9)
Gambela	40	66.5	(63.3, 69.6)	1,241	67.1	(64.3, 69.7)
Harari	42	78.3	(74.5, 81.6)	913	74.2	(69.9, 78.1)
Addis Ababa^a	190	65.0	(61.6, 68.3)	240	54.2	(46.9, 60.8)^b
Dire Dawa^a	54	70.4	(66.7, 73.8)	903	71.8	(66.1, 74.6)
Total	22,000	72.8	(71.9, 73.7)	19,433	72.6	(71.5, 73.7)

^aCity administration councils; ^bstatistically significant. CI, confidence interval; SNNP, Southern Nations and Nationalities People; DHS, Demographic and Health Survey.

Table 4 Risk ratios for under-five mortality by distribution of birth risks in the 5 years preceding the survey, Ethiopia DHS 2011

Birth risk category	Number of births	Number of deaths	Under-five mortality	Risk ratio (95% CI)
Not in any risk category (reference)	37,738	388	76.9	1.0
Mother's age >34 and birth order >3	19,927	235	86.4	1.11 (1.01, 1.22)*
Birth order >3	40,918	482	87.7	1.13 (1.02, 1.23)*
First birth to mothers age 18–34	22,448	275	88.7	1.14 (1.04, 1.25)*
Mother's age >34	961	17	118.0	1.48 (1.36, 1.61)*
Birth interval <24 months and birth order >3	18,133	500	197.3	2.30 (2.13, 2.49)*
Mother's age <18	11,454	223	146.7	1.77 (1.63, 1.92)*
Birth interval <24	12,970	257	144.7	1.77 (1.63, 1.92)*
Mother's age >34 and birth interval <24 months and birth order >3	5,122	121	170.2	2.04 (1.88, 2.20)*
Mother's age <18 and birth interval <24 months	1,606	45	211.9	2.45 (2.26, 2.65)*
Mother's age >34 and birth interval <24 months	65	3	325.0	3.43 (3.19, 3.70)*

Table 5 Results from multiple logistic regression analysis of predictors of avoidable birth risk for births in the preceding 5 years, Ethiopia DHS 2011

		95% CI
Characteristics	AOR	Lower limit	Upper limit
Region (Addis Ababa^a – ref)
Afar	1.68	1.11	2.53
Amhara	1.00	0.69	1.44
Oromia	1.18	0.82	1.69
Somali	2.16	1.33	3.51
Benishangul-Gumuz	1.48	1.01	2.17
SNNP	1.18	0.82	1.70
Gambela	1.12	0.78	1.61
Harari	1.28	0.84	1.93
Tigray	0.97	0.67	1.40
Dire Dawa^a	1.10	0.74	1.65
Women's education (no education – reference)
Primary	0.84	0.71	1.00
Secondary	0.59	0.40	0.88
Tertiary	0.51	0.28	0.91
Told of family planning at health facility (yes – reference)
No	1.18	1.03	1.35
Residence (urban – ref)
Rural	1.54	1.19	1.98

^aCity administration councils. AOR, adjusted odds ratio (adjusted for wealth quintile and religion); CI, confidence interval; SNNP, Southern Nations and Nationalities People; DHS, Demographic and Health Survey.