Meeting demand for family planning within a generation: prospects and implications at country level

Figures & data

Table 1 Selected current population and economic characteristics of Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Nigeria

	Burkina Faso	Ethiopia	Nigeria
Total fertility rate	5.9	4.1	5.6
Population (millions)	18	96	178
Rate of natural population increase (%)	3.1	2.1	2.5
Female population 15–49 years of age who have no education (%)^a	74	51	38
Gross national income per capita, purchasing power parity (US$)	1,560	1,350	5,600

Source: World Population Data Sheet 2014 (Population Reference Bureau), www.prb.org/pdf14/2014-world-population-data-sheet_eng.pdf, unless noted. ^aBurkina Faso Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2010, Ethiopia DHS 2011, Nigeria DHS 2013.

Fig. 1 Percentage of demand for family planning met with modern contraceptive methods and modern contraceptive prevalence rates in 194 countries in 2014. Large grey circles represent the unweighted average of countries by development classification by United Nations: least, less, and more developed countries (n=49, 103, and 42, respectively).

Table 2 Percentage demand for family planning met with modern methods (2014 and 2030), annual rates of change (2014–2030), and the number of women using modern methods according to current projection and benchmark scenarios among 63 selected countries

	All study countries	West and Central Africa	East and South Africa	Other
Indicator	(n=63)	(n=22)	(n=19)	(n=22)
Mean family planning demand satisfied with modern methods (%)^a
2014	43.3	27.7	46.7	56.1
2030	56.4	42.4	63.0	64.7
Mean annual rate of change, 2014–2030 (percentage points)^a, ^b
Current projection	0.9	0.9	1.1	0.6
Required by benchmark scenario	2.2	3.0	2.0	1.4
Mean difference in annual rate of changes between benchmark scenario and current projections^a, ^b
Absolute difference (percentage points)	1.3	2.0	0.9	0.8
Relative difference (ratio)	2.5	3.2	1.7	2.3
Total number of women (thousands)^c
2014	533,808	71,199	65,419	397,190
2030	615,063	96,341	92,889	425,833
Total number of women using modern methods (thousands)^c
2014	225,841	7,989	21,564	196,289
2030, current projection	300,629	21,214	45,431	233,984
2030, benchmark scenario^d	333,744	39,068	50,994	243,683

^aMean is unweighted average of national-level values across countries; ^bexcluding five countries where family planning demand satisfied with modern methods in 2014 was 75% or above; ^ctotal number of women is aggregate sum across countries (women refers to those who are between 15 and 49 years of age and married or in a union); ^dnine countries where projection is 75% or higher, the number of women according to the projected level was used.

Fig. 2 Demand for family planning and modern contraceptive prevalence rates in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Nigeria: current estimates and projections versus progress needed to meet the benchmark of 75% by 2030. MCPR, modern contraceptive prevalence rate.

Table 3 Percentage of demand for family planning met with modern methods (2014 and 2030), annual rates of change (2014–2030), and the number of women using modern methods according to current projection and benchmark scenarios in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Nigeria

Indicator	Burkina Faso	Ethiopia	Nigeria
Mean family planning demand satisfied with modern methods (%)
2014	39.5	53.5	27.2
2030	51.7	74.4	41.9
Mean annual rate of change, 2014–2030 (percentage points)
Current projection	0.8	1.3	0.9
Required by benchmark scenario	2.2	1.3	3.0
Difference in annual rate of change between the benchmark scenario and current projections
Absolute difference (percentage points)	1.5	0.0	2.1
Relative difference (ratio)	2.9	1.0	3.2
Total number of women (thousands)^a
2014	3,078	13,935	26,645
2030	4,224	20,588	34,604
Total number of women using modern methods (thousands)^a
2014	551	4,529	2,691
2030, current projection	1,225	11,468	7,198
2030, benchmark scenario	1,777	11,565	12,873

^a Women refers to those who are between 15 and 49 years of age and married or in a union.

Fig. 3 Scatter plot of annual rate of changes in demand for family planning satisfied with modern methods by initial level: eight 5-year periods between 1970 and 2010 from 194 countries. Solid curved line is a quadratic fitted line (R ² 0.17). A total of 1,552 observations are specific to a 5-year period and a country. The annual percentage point changes range from −3.87 (Timor-Leste 1995–2000) to 7.81 (Rwanda 2005–2010). Only 1,520 observations between the 1st and 99th percentile of the changes are shown, ranging from −0.78 to 3.50.

Table 4 List of countries and periods during which the annual change in family planning demand satisfied with modern methods exceeded two percentage points

		Demand for family planning satisfied with modern methods (%)		Annual rate of change
Country	Period	Beginning	Ending	(% points)
Afghanistan	2000–2005	14.7	27.4	2.5
Bangladesh	1980–1985	23.6	35.1	2.3
Bangladesh	1985–1990	35.1	46.3	2.2
Bangladesh	1990–1995	46.3	58.1	2.4
Bhutan	1990–1995	30.8	41.3	2.1
Bhutan	1995–2000	41.3	53.0	2.3
Bhutan	2000–2005	53.0	69.0	3.2
Bhutan	2005–2010	69.0	81.8	2.5
Burkina Faso	2000–2005	15.1	26.2	2.2
Burundi	2005–2010	20.3	32.2	2.4
Cambodia	1995–2000	18.9	32.9	2.8
Djibouti	2000–2005	12.8	26.8	2.8
Ethiopia	2000–2005	13.7	27.7	2.8
Ethiopia	2005–2010	27.7	46.9	3.9
India	1970–1975	22.1	32.8	2.1
India	1975–1980	32.8	45.4	2.5
Indonesia	1970–1975	16.8	32.3	3.1
Indonesia	1975–1980	32.3	49.8	3.5
Indonesia	1980–1985	49.8	62.4	2.5
Kenya	1985–1990	20.0	32.2	2.4
Laos	1995–2000	35.8	47.3	2.3
Lesotho	1985–1990	20.1	30.7	2.1
Lesotho	2005–2010	55.0	65.8	2.2
Madagascar	2000–2005	25.5	37.9	2.5
Madagascar	2005–2010	37.9	49.6	2.3
Malawi	1995–2000	23.1	40.8	3.5
Mozambique	1995–2000	16.7	28.9	2.4
Myanmar	1990–1995	30.9	43.8	2.6
Myanmar	1995–2000	43.8	54.0	2.1
Nepal	1985–1990	22.9	33.1	2.0
Nigeria	1990–1995	13.3	23.7	2.1
Rwanda	2005–2010	18.4	57.4	7.8
South Africa	1970–1975	28.7	42.5	2.8
South Africa	1975–1980	42.5	54.5	2.4
Timor-Leste	2005–2010	29.6	40.7	2.2
Tanzania	1990–1995	16.8	28.4	2.3
Zimbabwe	1975–1980	18.8	31.2	2.5
Zimbabwe	1980–1985	31.2	45.8	2.9
Zimbabwe	1985–1990	45.8	57.4	2.3

Fig. 4 Trends in demand satisfied with modern methods by household wealth and residential area: Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Nigeria, by socio-economic and rural–urban status. Source: Demographic and Health Surveys through STATcompiler.com.