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Abstract
This study reviews the current status, uncertainties and shortcomings of existing models of land use change (LUC) and associated GHG emissions as a result of biofuel production. The study also identifies options for improving the models and conducting further analysis. Moreover, because the extent of indirect LUC related to biofuels largely depends on other land uses, particularly agriculture, this study explores strategies for mitigating overall LUC and its effects. Despite recent improvements and refinements of the models, this review finds large uncertainties, primarily related to the underlying data and assumptions of the market-equilibrium models. Thus, there is still considerable scope for further scientific improvements of the modeling efforts. In addition, analyzing how overall LUC and its effects can be minimized is an important topic for further research and can deliver more concrete input for developing proper policy strategies. Future studies should investigate the impact of sustainability criteria and the effects of strategies for mitigating LUC, such as increasing agricultural efficiency, optimizing bioenergy production chains, using currently unused residues and byproducts, and producing feedstocks on degraded and marginal land.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank J Powell (LEI Wageningen University & Research Centre, The Netherlands) and K Overmars (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Netherlands) for their comments on an earlier draft of this article.
Supplementary data
To view the supplementary data that accompany this paper please visit the journal website at: www.future-science.com/doi/suppl/10.4155/BFS.11.154.
Financial & competing interests disclosure
This research was conducted within the research program Knowledge Infrastructure for Sustainable Biomass, which is funded by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation, the European Climate Foundation and the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. The authors have no other relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript apart from those disclosed.
No writing assistance was utilized in the production of this manuscript.