Relationship of therapeutic cancer vaccine development to population disease burden and five-year survival

Figures & data

Table 1. Therapeutic cancer vaccines currently in human clinical trials, by disease target

Cancer	Trials (n)	Phase I	Phase I/II	Phase II	Phase II/III	Phase III
Melanoma	40	13	15	11	0	1
Breast	34	14	9	10	0	1
Lung	30	13	8	5	1	3
Prostate	22	4	9	9	0	0
Brain	20	11	2	7	0	0
Leukemia	18	7	6	5	0	0
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma	16	6	5	5	0	0
Multiple myeloma	13	3	5	4	1	0
Pancreas	10	4	3	1	0	2
Kidney	10	0	5	4	0	1
Hodgkin lymphoma	8	2	5	1	0	0
Cervix	8	4	2	2	0	0
Bladder	2	0	1	1	0	0

Data sources: National Cancer Institute clinical trials database. http://www.cancer.gov/clinicaltrials/search. Accessed February 27, 2011; and National Cancer Institute–http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/factsheet/Therapy/cancer-vaccines. Cancers listed are identified by NCI as targets for active therapeutic vaccine trials. Accessed February 27, 2011.

Figure 1. Development targets and timelines for therapeutic cancer vaccines in phase III clinical trials. Data abstracted by the authors from National Cancer Institute clinical trials database⁸ and clinicaltrials.gov.¹⁰ National clinical trials (NCT) information is provided to readers for reference regarding each vaccine.

Table 2. Cancer types and corresponding measures of burden and survival in the United States

Cancer	Incident Cases^a	Annual Deaths^a	Five-year Survival (%), 1999–2006	Absolute Change in Survival vs 1990–1992	Relative Change in Survival vs 1990–1992, %	Five-year Mortality Estimate
Liver and intra-hepatic bile duct	24,120	18,910	14.4	8.5	144.1	20,647
Esophagus	16,440	14,500	18.9	6.3	50.0	13,333
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma	65,540	20,210	69.1	17.3	33.4	20,252
Myeloma	20,180	10,650	38.5	8.0	26.2	12,411
Pancreas	43,140	36,800	5.7	1.1	23.9	40,681
Stomach	21,000	10,570	26.7	5.1	23.6	15,393
Leukemia	43,050	21,840	55.3	8.5	18.2	19,243
Lung and bronchus	222,520	157,300	16.4	2.4	17.1	186,027
Kidney and renal pelvis	58,240	13,040	69.6	8.2	13.4	17,705
Brain and other nervous system	22,020	13,140	36.3	4.1	12.7	14,027
Oral cavity and pharynx	36,540	7,880	62.7	6.7	12.0	13,629
Ovary	21,880	13,880	45.3	2.7	6.3	11,968
Prostate	217,730	32,050	99.6	5.9	6.3	871
Breast^b	209,060	40,230	89.9	4.5	5.3	21,115
Hodgkin Lymphoma	8,490	1,320	86.8	4.0	4.8	1,121
Colon	102,900	51,370	65.8	2.8	4.4	35,192
Melanoma	68,130	8,700	93.0	3.5	3.9	4,769
Thyroid	44,670	1,690	97.4	2.4	2.5	1,161
Cervix	12,200	4,210	71.1	0.5	0.7	3,526
Bladder	70,530	14,680	81.1	0.5	0.6	13,330
Testis	8,480	350	96.3	0.5	0.5	314
Larynx	12,720	3,600	62.9	-3.4	-5.1	4,719

Survival rate data from National Cancer Institute Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Data accessed March 4, 2011 from http://seer.cancer.gov/; time frames pre-defined by SEER. Incidence and annual mortality data obtained from reference 1. Five-year mortality estimates from authors’ calculations—see Methods. ^aValues from 2010. ^bSurvival rate data only represent females while rest of data reflect both sexes.

Table 3. Correlation analysis of clinical trials activity for therapeutic cancer vaccines with measures of cancer disease burden and survival

	Annual incidence	Annual mortality	Five-year Survival	Recent change in five-year survival	Estimate of five-year mortality
Number of Active Clinical Trials	r = 0.60 p = 0.003	r = 0.39 p = 0.07	r = 0.17 p = 0.44	r = 0.17 p = 0.45	r = 0.30 p = 0.18

National Cancer Institute clinical trials database. http://www.cancer.gov/clinicaltrials/search. Accessed February 27, 2011.

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U.S. National Institutes of Health. ClinicalTrials.gov. http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Accessed February 27, 2011.

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