An examination of the importance of performances in youth and junior competition as an indicator of later success in tennis

Highlights

► The relationship between youth results (U14 and U18) and professional tennis success. ► Good youth performances increase the chance for later success but are not a precondition. ► Competition results at young ages are not a good criteria for talent selection.

Abstract

Talent identification at a young age is deemed essential for many national sporting organisations to increase the chances of success for their players on the international stage. Talent identification methods can be imprecise and national tennis associations and coaches often identify talent based on performances at youth tournaments and junior rankings. However, not much is known about the relationship between the international competition performances of young tennis players and later success. This relationship is explored in this study using comparisons based on: (a) the results of 3521 players at U14 youth tournaments; (b) the rankings of 377 junior players (U18) by the International Tennis Federation; (c) the rankings of 727 professional male players by the Association of Tennis Professionals; and (d) the rankings of 779 professional players by the Women's Tennis Association. Junior performances (U18) and performances at youth tournaments (U14) appear to have a low success rate in predicting later success. No distinct age was found at which players should start to perform in order to be successful at the professional level. It is concluded that even though good performances at young ages increase athletes’ chances to become elite players, they are not a precondition for achieving later success. Therefore, this study informs talent scouts, sport development officers, coaches and high performance managers of the role that performances at international youth competitions may play in talent identification in tennis.

Keywords:

• Athlete development
• Competition
• Professional tennis
• Talent identification

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the Ministry of Culture, Youth, Sport and Media from the Flemish Government for their support in this study. This study was part of a larger project including other sports (judo, athletics and gymnastics) that was conducted at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel. We thank Hebe Schaillée and Jasper Truyens for their help and support in the data collection and analysis process. We would also like to thank the Centre for Tourism, Sport Service and Innovation (TSSI) from Griffith University for supporting the development of the paper.

Notes

1 These authors have contributed equally to this paper.