An empirical analysis of European football rivalries based on on-field performances

Highlights

•	Football rivalries in Europe are analyzed from a performance perspective.
•	Granger causality tests are applied to performance metric data.
•	Causal relationships hold for only 11 out of 23 rivalries involved in the analysis.
•	Roots of some rivalries should be searched in other sources than performance.
•	Suitable incentive schemes should be established to enhance competition.

Abstract

Unlike previous research on the concept of rivalry, the specific focus of this study is on the dynamic relationships between on-field performances of rival clubs. The author analyzes causality structures between league performances of major rival clubs in Europe’s leading divisions in order to assess whether the rivalry between two clubs establishes causality between their performances. The results show that causal relationships hold for less than half of the rivalries, and most of these rivalries involve a success brings success type of dynamic relationship. These findings imply some of the football rivalries in Europe had their roots in other sources than performance, and when devising their strategies, sport managers should take measures to avoid substantial decoupling of team performances from fans’ perceptions.

Keywords:

• Football rivalries
• Europe
• On-field performance
• Causality

Acknowledgements

Two reviewers and the associate editor of this Journal, Pamela Wicker, provided very helpful guidance and constructive comments in revising this paper.