The Malthusian fallacy: Prophecies of doom and the crisis of Social Security

Abstract

Thomas Malthus and the neo-Malthusians are concerned about exponential growth of the population and the consequences of this growth on the world. Their predictions of doom are often misplaced because they do not take into account changes that may counterbalance population growth. This is the Malthusian fallacy: forecast of doom predicated on one change that does not take other changes into account. This paper examines the root of this fallacy and examines the prophecies of doom that swirl around Social Security as the graying baby boomers move toward their retirement years in record numbers.

Notes

1 Articles published before the Freedom to Work Act of 2000 often cite 2027–2029 as the end of Social Security solvency. Articles published after the earning cap was removed in 2000 are more likely to extend Social Security's life span by at least a decade.

2 There is a 13-year difference in life expectancy for those in industrialized countries compared to those in developing countries. This is largely attributed to better health care, immunization against diseases, and nutrition (see Butler, 1999).

3 A detailed study by Martikainen, Valkonen, and Martelin (2001) of differences by gender and class among Finish citizens found that the death rate of manual workers was substantially higher than for non-manual workers.

4 Anecdotal evidence relating to retirement came from employees with bankrupt firms such as Enron and WorldCom who lost all of their 401-k funds. Against all conventional market wisdom, these individuals were often invested solely in their company's stock during the 1990s when the company was posting double-digit increases.

5 Muller argues that the boomer's economic prosperity was purchased largely at the expense of family life because they had to work so hard to stay as economically vital as their parents.

6 In the mid-1990s McDonald's aired a series of commercials where the gray-haired old man kissed his wife goodbye at the front door and went briskly off to work to “teach those kids” at thing or two. The older worker became a mainstay in the fast food and grocery industry during the 1990s. The low-paid “greeters” who first appeared at Wal-Mart have also become more popular fixtures at other retail outlets.