The Mexican Dream? The effect of return migrants on hometown development

Abstract

Mexican migrants are returning to their homeland at record rates. Along with material goods, these former migrants may bring with them new ways of thinking about the world and envisioning the future. Still, relatively little is known about the degree to which former migrants affect the wellbeing of their local communities over time. This study evaluates the effect of return migrants on health, education, income, and political participation in Guanajuato, Mexico during the period 2000–2010. The findings imply that returnees may have positive effects within local economies, improving not only income, but also education, healthcare, electoral participation, and overall wellbeing. The results of this study have important implications for policy makers operating within emigration-prone regions of the world.

Keywords:

• Return migrants
• Migration
• Human development
• Political participation

Notes

1 The authors wish to acknowledge Richard Wood, Bob Fiala, participants from the 2014 WSSA Conference, and the anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.

2 For a much more detailed review of historic migration trends out of Guanajuato, see Arias (2004). Old Paradigms and New Scenarios in a Migratory Tradition: U.S. Migration from Guanajuato. In Jorge Durand and Douglas S. Massey (Eds.), Crossing the Border: Research from the Mexican Migration Project. New York, New York: The Russell Sage Foundation.

3 Income per capita is adjusted for inflation, using August 2005 as a baseline (INEGI).

4 In interpreting this effect it is important to note the HDI index runs from 0 to 1; thus, what may seem like relatively small increases should be interpreted as substantially significant.

5 Here it is worth noting there is likely an interaction effect between remittances and return migration. In the panel data there is a positive correlation (r = .39) between these two variables, indicating that the percentage of homes receiving remittances tends to be higher in precisely those communities that also receive higher numbers of return migrants. Still, despite this interaction, return migration is found to have a positive effect on development outcomes whereas remittances are found to hamper local development. This finding implies that it may be in the absence of return migrants—and the social and human capital they bring with them—that remittances are most pernicious. Teasing out the exact effect of this interaction is an important issue worthy of further research.