Predicting Basic Military Performance for Conscripts in the Norwegian Armed Forces

Abstract

The Norwegian Armed Forces have made major changes to the enlistment and selection system for conscripts in recent years. In this article, the predictive validity of various selection criteria for military performance is examined. The sample consisted of 3,276 conscripts, of whom 18% were female. The predictors in the analysis were general mental ability, self-perceived physical fitness, social and life skills, self-perceived military fit, tested physical fitness and officer-rated suitability. Military performance was assessed by an officer toward the end of the basic 1-year military service. Bivariate correlations between the predictors and military performance were studied for men and women separately. The best predictors were tested physical fitness for men and officer-rated suitability for women. A stepwise hierarchical moderated multiple regression analysis was conducted. A small but significant part of the variance was explained by the model. Both self-reported variables and other predictors made a small, but significant contribution to improving the model. The results indicated that the 2-step selection process was valid for predicting military performance for both men and women.

What is the public significance of this article?

The Norwegian Armed Forces have introduced a new enlistment and selection system for conscripts. This study examines how well selection criteria such as general mental ability, self-reported measures, physical fitness and officer-rated suitability predict performance after 1 year of service. The selection system works for both women and men, which is important to ensure that the best candidates are selected.

• conscripts
• selection
• predictive validity
• military performance