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General Paper

A combined statistical approach and ground movement model for improving taxi time estimations at airports

, , &
Pages 1347-1360 | Received 01 Jun 2011, Accepted 01 Aug 2012, Published online: 21 Dec 2017
 

Abstract

With the expected continued increases in air transportation, the mitigation of the consequent delays and environmental effects is becoming more and more important, requiring increasingly sophisticated approaches for airside airport operations. Improved on-stand time predictions (for improved resource allocation at the stands) and take-off time predictions (for improved airport-airspace coordination) both require more accurate taxi time predictions, as do the increasingly sophisticated ground movement models which are being developed. Calibrating such models requires historic data showing how long aircraft will actually take to move around the airport, but recorded data usually includes significant delays due to contention between aircraft. This research was motivated by the need to both predict taxi times and to quantify and eliminate the effects of airport load from historic taxi time data, since delays and re-routing are usually explicitly considered in ground movement models. A prediction model is presented here that combines both airport layout and historic taxi time information within a multiple linear regression analysis, identifying the most relevant factors affecting the variability of taxi times for both arrivals and departures. The promising results for two different European hub airports are compared against previous results for US airports.

Acknowledgements

This research was funded by EPSRC (The Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council). The authors wish to thank the involved stakeholders, namely Swedavia AB and Flughafen Zürich AG for providing the real data sets from those airports, and NATS for providing the Heathrow data. We would also like to thank the anonymous reviewers who have helped to improve this paper.

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