JIT delivery with stochastic lead time

Abstract

We examine the effect of stochastic lead times on Just-in-Time (JIT) delivery. We find that with stochastic lead times there is a possibility of order crossover, and what order crossover does is to transform the original lead times into effective lead times, which is an AR(1) process that is an autoregressive process of Order 1. The mean of this process is the same as the mean of the original lead time, but its variance could be much smaller. The implication is that when we consider order crossover in the analysis, the cost could be less than otherwise (but never less than that with deterministic lead times). The literature on JIT with stochastic lead times has never considered order crossover, which produces the effective delivery times (EDT). Here, we demonstrate some important properties of the EDT: that it is a Cauchy sequence, and hence it converges; that it is an AR(1) process; and that it stochastically dominates the parent lead time distribution.

Keywords:

• order crossover
• effective delivery times
• AR(1)
• stochastic dominance

Acknowledgements

The first-named author acknowledges with gratitude the support for this project by the Center of Supply Chain Research (CSCR), Smeal College of Business, Pennsylvania State University