How many dentists does Sri Lanka need? Modelling to inform policy decisions

Abstract

This paper describes a model that has been used to inform government policy in Sri Lanka. The model has two components, representing supply and demand for dental-care services. The supply-side component (the dental workforce model) uses system dynamics to represent the career progression of dentists from recruitment and training at the University Dental School, through different career paths through to retirement. The demand-side model calculates a range of future demand scenarios for dental care, based on different assumptions about Sri Lanka’s potential future economic development. The combined model was used by the Sri Lankan government to plan better provision of state-funded dental care and the future university intake of dental students. Data collection for both models was challenging, and required some innovative research. The model itself, and its successful application, raise a number of wider issues concerning model implementation and acceptability by clients and model users.

Keywords:

• system dynamics
• workforce planning
• dental health
• developing countries
• Sri Lanka
• model implementation