Exploring the performance of small- and medium-sized enterprises through the credit crunch

Abstract

Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are major contributors to most western economies. They are often supported by government policies, and in the UK the government encourages banks to lend to them. It is generally believed that the credit crunch has had an impact on the performance of SMEs. This study looks at the impact of the crunch using large samples from 2007 through to 2010. It looks at performance by region, age and industrial sector (SIC code). It then proceeds to explore the modelling of default over the years, with a focus on young businesses. It was found that there is a degree of stability within the models, though the level of default varies across years. Young businesses, as has been found before, are shown to be more vulnerable.

Keywords:

• credit scoring
• small business
• risk
• banking
• predictive modelling
• credit crisis