Modelling and simulating the dynamic environmental factors in post-seismic relief operation

Abstract

This paper introduced dynamic environmental factors into the disaster-relief supply chain to characterize the dynamic relations and provide support to further decision-making in relief operations. A system dynamic model was presented to describe the processes of delivering emergency supply. The researches in post-seismic rapid damage assessment of road networks and injured were referenced, and the impacts of dynamic road condition and delay in information transfer (information delay (ID)) were simulated and analysed. Simulation results indicate that (1) the road condition influences the system performance significantly; and (2) the transport time of relief supplies (transport delay) is a function of the road capacity and the in-transit volume, so the mechanism of considering the feedbacks of these two factors is important to maintain the stability of the relief system. Further analysis of the system behaviours reveals that (3) the ID affects the relief head-quarter (the upper stream) and the disaster-affected town (the lower stream) in different ways; and (4) the choice of the inventory planning strategies is a choice about how to reduce the impact of ID and make full use of the capacity of the damaged road networks.

Keywords:

• post-seismic supply chain
• disaster relief
• system dynamics
• post-seismic rapid damage assessment

Acknowledgements

Supported by the Doctoral Program Foundation of Institutions of Higher Education of China (20110185110022).