Abstract
Judgement-based (or ‘soft’) Operational Research (OR) is used in Defence, although it may not be well known and understood and it may not be perceived to have the rigour of more quantitative techniques. A NATO task group was set up to address these features and to produce a Code of Best Practice with the purpose of: creating an understanding of judgement-based OR, clarifying when and how it can be used, and providing guidance on how the critical features of validity, credibility and acceptance can be achieved. Two distinct volumes were produced: one directed towards the analysts and the other towards the clients. We propose that a sound process be followed with due diligence and that this will provide the evidence needed to protect the client from criticism. The article describes the motivation behind the project, the products and some reflections on judgement-based OR.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Diederik J. D. Wijnmalen
Diederik J.D. Wijnmalen is a Senior Scientist and Advisor at the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research TNO in The Hague, The Netherlands. He obtained his MSc (Hons) from the University of Amsterdam in Econometrics and Operational Research. Since joining TNO, he has worked for the NL Ministry of Defence in the field of operational and strategic decision support and policy analysis, conducted scenario studies and contributed to strategic documents. He has also worked for the Ministries of Home Affairs and Security and Justice in the field of national security strategy and risk assessment, civilian-military cooperation and critical infrastructure issues. He co-organised a NATO Symposium on Defence Decision Making in Uncertainty and chaired the SAS-087 Task Group on Judgement-based Operational Analysis. He also acts as a facilitator of workshops and applies ‘soft’ OR. He has written a number of academic papers on various subjects, including issues regarding the Analytic Hierarchy Process.
Neville J. Curtis
Neville J. Curtis is a Research Leader for Operations Research with Australia's Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO). He gained a PhD in Chemistry at the University of Alberta in Canada and joined DSTO in 1984. After initially working in energetic materials, he moved to Operations Research in the late 1980s. He has conducted a range of studies including for weapon systems, soldier modernisation, special operations, national security and the nature of service conditions, as well as undertaking enabling research directed towards developing methodology at the ‘front end’. He has been involved in international OR-based activities including the American, British, Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Armies’ Program (ABCA), the Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) and NATO. He has been active in promotion of education programmes in OR and is a visiting professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy (University of New South Wales).