Using system dynamics to analyse disruption and delay in complex projects for litigation: can the modelling purposes be met?

Abstract

System dynamics (SD) is a modelling approach that has been used to analyse disruption and delay (D&D) for litigation in a number of cases over the last 30 years. However, there is a lack of literature addressing the question of whether or not it is actually a suitable modelling approach to take in this environment. This paper explores this question by considering whether or not SD is capable of meeting the modelling purposes of analysing D&D for litigation. The author's experience as part of a team which has carried out post-mortem analysis on projects for a number of litigation cases is used to consider the degree to which SD can meet these modelling purposes. This process highlights limitations of using SD. An understanding of these limitations is important, so that a modeller can make an informed decision about the appropriateness of SD as a modelling approach to support any specific claim for compensation.

Keywords:

• system dynamics
• litigation
• disruption and delay
• modelling complex projects

Acknowledgements

A team that is based at Strathclyde University and consists of Colin Eden, Terry Williams, Fran Ackermann, and Susan Howick has been involved in the claims referred to above. Many of the issues discussed in this paper have, inevitably, been influenced by the thinking of all the team members. In particular, the author thanks Colin Eden and Terry Williams for the discussions regarding the material contained in this paper.