Using regression analysis to model the performance of UK Coastguard centres

Abstract

This paper combines the use of (binary) logistic regression and stochastic frontier analysis to assess the operational effectiveness of the UK Coastguard (Maritime Rescue) coordination centres over the period 1995–1998. In particular, the rationale for the Government's decision—confirmed in 1999—to close a number of coordination centres is scrutinized. We conclude that the regression models developed in this paper represent a performance measurement framework that is considerably more realistic and complex than the one apparently used by the UK Government. Furthermore, we have found that the coordination centres selected for closure were not necessarily the ones that were least effective in their primary purpose—that is, to save lives. In a related paper, we demonstrate how the regression models developed here can be used to inform the application of data envelopment analysis to this case.

Keywords:

• accidents
• shipping
• government
• performance measurement
• regression