An efficient approximate solution for stochastic Lanchester models

Abstract

Combat modeling is one of the essential topics for military decision making. The Lanchester equation is a classic method for modeling warfare, and many variations have extended its limitations and relaxed its assumptions. As a model becomes more complex, solving it analytically becomes intractable or computationally expensive. Hence, we propose two approximation methods: moment-matching scheme and a supporting method called battle-end approximation. These methods give an approximate solution in a short amount of time, while maintaining a high level of accuracy in simulation results in terms of hypothesis testing and numerical verification. They can be applied to computationally intensive problems, such as optimal resource allocation and analysis with asymmetric power like snipers or stealth aircrafts.

Keywords:

• Military
• stochastic Lanchester model
• Gaussian approximation

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Defense Acquisition Program Administration and the Agency for Defense Development under the contract UD140022PD, Korea.