An analysis of a panel of Spanish GDP forecasts

Abstract

This article undertakes an analysis of the forecasts included in the Panel of Spanish Forecasts in order to highlight the fact that the predictions made and the errors committed by the entities participating on this panel contain information that is particularly useful in analysing the evolution of the Spanish economy. Here, a study is undertaken of the GDP growth forecasts for the Spanish economy for the period 2000 to 2002 made in distinct forecast time horizons. Specifically, it analyses whether the forecasts are optimistic or pessimistic and whether new information concerning the variable being predicted is used efficiently in revising earlier forecasts.

Acknowledgements

The author would like to acknowledge the support of the research project SEJ2005-03196/ECON (Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología, Spain).

Notes

¹ Stekler (2002) provides a detailed description of the principal panels of experts for the US economy.

² FUNCAS is a research centre funded by the Spanish savings banks.