The influence of the number of statewide legislative referendums on voter participation in the US

Abstract

This empirical study seeks to broaden the interpretation of the ‘rational voter model’ so as to include the potential effects of the number of statewide legislative referendums. This study tests the hypothesis that greater numbers of such referendums increase voter turnout because they elevate the Expected Gross Benefits (EGB) of voting by ‘empowering voters’ while not significantly increasing the Expected Gross Costs (EGC) of voting. Using state-level data for the 2006 general election in the US, as well as the 2004 US Presidential election, and after allowing for a variety of economic and demographic factors, this study finds compelling evidence that the number of statewide legislative referendums does significantly increase voter turnout.

Notes

¹ The estimation of Equation 4 for 2006 without the White (1980) correction is provided below

As shown in this estimate, the estimated coefficient on the legislative referendum variable remains positive and statistically significant, although at the 4% level rather than at the 1% level as in Equation 5. Arguably, the most notable other difference between the present estimate and that in (5) is that the estimated coefficient on the real income variable in the present estimate is no longer statistically significant at the 3% level as it was in (5); rather, it is statistically significant at only the 6% level.

² See Greene (2000). We thank an anonymous referee for this helpful suggestion.

³ Interestingly, if the legislative referendum variable is dropped from the estimate, the adj. R ² falls by 0.03.