Can China’s meat imports be sustainable? A case study of mad cow disease

ABSTRACT

Rising demand and constrained domestic production have challenged the meat consumption in China. To fill the gap between domestic demand and supply, China imports an increasing volume of meat products from the international market. However, outbreaks of animal diseases can jeopardize China’s ability to meet its need for consumable meat. This article investigates the impact of animal disease outbreaks on the sustainability of China’s meat imports by using the episode of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in the United States in 2003 as a case study. Our results show that China’s meat imports are becoming more diversified and sustainable. The outbreak did have significant negative impacts on beef imports from the United States. During the epidemic, not only was China able to increase beef imports from other major exporters, but it also increased imports of other animal products such as edible offal and pork. Our findings indicate that international trade can serve as a reliable source to meet China’s soaring meat consumption.

KEYWORDS:

• Mad cow disease
• meat import
• event study
• trade diversion

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• F14
• Q01

Acknowledgements

​​​This research was sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project ID: 71473123 and 71333008), the National Social Science Foundation of China (Project ID: 14ZDA037), and the Priority Academic Program Development (PAPD) of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, P. R. China.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.​​​

Notes

¹ According to Cheng, Gao, and Seale (2015), income elasticities of imported meat are 4.45 for pork, 3.89 for sheep and goat, 3.54 for offal, 2.78 for fresh/chilled beef, and 2.20 for poultry.

² The three apparent decline in imports from the United States are during the 1996 U.K. BSE episode, the 2003 U.S. BSE episode, and the 2008 great recession.

Additional information

Funding

​​​This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [71333008,71473123], National Social Science Foundation of China [14ZDA037] and Priority Academic Program Development (PAPD) of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, P. R. China.