COVID-19 pandemic, stock returns, and volatility: the role of the vaccination program in Canada

ABSTRACT

This paper examines how stock returns and volatility in the Canadian stock market have been affected by both the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated vaccination program. The empirical analysis is based on the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic model which explicitly allows the inclusion of information on the COVID-19 pandemic and the vaccination program. The analysis uses daily Canadian equity returns and volatility, spanning the period 27 January 2020, to 31 August 2021. The findings provide evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic exerts a significant negative impact on the mean of Canadian stock returns and a positive impact on their volatility. In contrast, the findings provide novel evidence that the vaccination program in Canada has reversed these detrimental effects.

KEYWORDS:

• Stock market returns
• volatility returns
• COVID-19
• vaccination program
• Canada
• GARCH-X model

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• G11
• Q54
• C22

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-strategies/what-are-the-largest-stock-exchanges-in-the-world–180905#information-banner-dismiss.

2 https://www.tsx.com/listings/listing-with-us.

3 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html.

4 Source: Our world in data.

5 https://covid19datahub.io/.

6 https://globalnews.ca/news/6758574/tsx-coronavirus-worst-first-quarter/.

7 https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/14/946301025/canada-administers-its-1st-COVID-19-vaccine-shots?t=1630600101108.