Short‐term forecasting with a multi‐level spectral primitive equation model part II ‐ Hemispheric prognoses and verification

Abstract

The spectral global baroclinic primitive equation model described in Part I of this paper has been extensively tested. The model has been run daily from operational analyses for over a year. From this large sample of forecasts, verification statistics have been collected and compared with similar statistics collected from three competitive grid‐point models. The spectral model is also compared with the grid‐point models in a synoptic case study.

A second case study demonstrates the effect of horizontal resolution and physical effects on spectral model forecasts. The results of these experiments demonstrate that the spectral model is highly competitive with other models, in terms of both accuracy and computational efficiency. On 18 February 1976 the spectral model became the operational Canadian large‐scale forecast model.