Can Structural Indicators of Trade Explain Why EU Candidate Countries Are Integrating Slowly?

ABSTRACT

The paper discusses whether “enlargement fatigue,” slowing down the European Union integration process of 6 Candidate Countries (C6), can be explained by the poor economic and trade performance of those economies, especially in trading with the EU. We comprehensively analyzed the merchandise trade of those economies with the EU in 2007–2018 using numerous quantitative techniques and applying a very high level of data disaggregation. First, the value of similarity indicators between the C6’s export and EU import structures and indices of intra-industry trade was calculated. Then we controlled for additional factors: the changes in C6’s exports (imports) to the EU through shares of goods at higher levels of processing, as well as their export (import) specialization. The conclusion is that the weak trade performances of C6 are not the cause of enlargement fatigue, as these economies saw moderate structural improvements in their trade with the EU.

KEYWORDS:

• EU Candidate Countries
• intra-industry trade
• similarity indices
• the EU
• trade structures

JEL Classification:

• F14
• F15
• B41
• C44

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Goran Nikolić

Goran Nikolić, graduated from the University of Belgrade, Faculty of Economics. He received his PhD with a thesis titled ''Structural Adjustment of Serbia’s Exports to Import Demands of the EU”. As of recent, he is Principal Research Fellow at the Institute of European Studies (Belgrade). He was a contributor on behalf of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce for making the White Book 2008 of Foreign Investors Council. Mr. Nikolić has published 8 books and dozens of scientific papers, especially in the field of foreign trade structure. He has participated in many scientific events of national and international importance, such as ‘Evolution of International Trading System: Prospects and Challenges’ (St. Petersburg), where he delivered a lecture by invitation on October 24, 2019. He was a member of Serbian Scientific Society of Economists.

Ivan Nikolić

Ivan Nikolić, is Research Associate/Director of Scientific Research Development at the Economics Institute in Belgrade. He is also a member of the Council of the Governor of the National Bank of Serbia and editor and co-author of the monthly publication Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends (MAT). His research focuses on Serbia’s economic policy, development and economic system, macroeconomic environment and international economy. He has been involved in various national and international scientific projects and during his time at the Economics Institute, he acted as team leader in numerous commercial projects as well.