Determinants of Public Debt Dynamics in Transition and Post-Transition Economies

ABSTRACT

This article examines the dynamics of general government debt across 27 transition and post-transition countries spanning from 1996 to 2019. We devise and assess a theoretical model incorporating key determinants shaping the trajectory of public debt. Our evaluation employs panel data models. The findings underscore inflation, GDP growth, and nominal exchange rate as primary influencers of public debt. However, the significance of the exchange rate diminishes, displaying negative signs, when excluding post-transition euro area countries from analysis.

KEYWORDS:

• Exchange rate
• public debt dynamics
• transition economies

JEL Classification:

• F34
• H63
• P27

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data Availability Statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author.

Additional information

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Notes on contributors

Carlos A. Carrasco

Carlos A. Carrasco holds a Ph.D. in Economic Integration from the University of the Basque Country. Currently, he is an Associate Professor of Macroeconomics at UDEM Business School, University of Monterrey in Mexico, and a member of the National System of Researchers level II; he has held Visiting Professor positions in Spain, Hungary, and Peru. His main fields of scientific interest are macroeconomic policy, international economics, and structural change in developing countries. He has published more than 25 articles in international scientific journals.

Edgar Demetrio Tovar-García

Edgar Demetrio Tovar-García holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Barcelona and a postdoctoral stay at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. He worked as a Short-Term Consultant of the World Bank and as a Research Professor in Mexican and Russian Universities. His interests include international economics, economics of education, development studies, and econometric modeling, particularly regression analysis with panel data. He is a member of the Mexican National System of Researchers, currently Level II. He is author and coauthor of more than 40 articles published in international journals.