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The Engineering Economist
A Journal Devoted to the Problems of Capital Investment
Volume 58, 2013 - Issue 1
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ARTICLES

Technical Note: Value Driver Formulas for Continuing Value in Firm Valuation by the Discounted Cash Flow Model

Pages 59-70 | Published online: 27 Feb 2013
 

Abstract

A team from McKinsey (Koller et al. Citation2010) recommended the value driver formula for continuing value. The idea is as follows: The company is almost in a steady state. However, the existing operations and the subsequent ones, referred to as growth projects, can be somewhat different. That is, the return on new invested capital (RONIC; refers to growth projects) can be lower than the return on invested capital (ROIC; refers to existing operations). Two weaknesses are associated with the McKinsey formula. Firstly, the only permissible case of RONIC < ROIC is where the working capital requirement is different between the growth projects and the existing operations. The usual Gordon formula then gives the same result, so the McKinsey formula is not necessary. Secondly, the implied split into existing operations and growth projects means that the former are valued under the unreasonable assumption of zero inflation. A more significant extended value driver formula is derived that rectifies these weaknesses.

Acknowledgments

The author is indebted to Henrik Andersson, Tomas Hjelström, Kenth Skogsvik, and Håkan Thorsell for comments. Thanks also to Försäkringsbolaget Pensionsgaranti for economic support.

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