An integrated approach to evaluating inland waterway disruptions using economic interdependence, agent-based, and Bayesian models

Abstract

The U.S. inland waterways play a vital role in the domestic economy, but extreme weather events, especially floods, perennially threaten to disrupt their operations. Here, we develop a data-driven approach to analyzing economic risks due to flood closures along the inland waterways that combines agent-based, economic interdependence, and Bayesian modeling. We demonstrate our framework by evaluating economic impacts of various flood disruptions along the Upper Mississippi River and determining cases where a publicly operated, flood-resilient port located near the mouth of the river can reroute shipments and mitigate production losses for the region. We find that Illinois, Louisiana, Minnesota, and Missouri are the states that suffer the most production losses from flood disruptions and that agriculture and chemical manufacturing are the most impacted industries. However, during floods whose return periods exceed 30-years, the flood resilient port becomes cost-effective in mitigating losses for the region. Our methodology can be easily extended to other hazards and sections of the inland waterways.

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Dr. Cameron MacKenzie at Iowa State University for providing us with the source code for his inland waterway disruption ABM. Additionally, we would like to thank Dr. Jessi Cisewski-Kehe at the University of Wisconsin for walking us through the ABC-PMC algorithm.

Disclosure statement

The authors have no competing interests to declare.

Additional information

Funding

This research was funded by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), grant number 33004-23717.

Notes on contributors

Paul M. Johnson

Paul Johnson, Ph.D., is a Postdoctoral Fellow in Vanderbilt’s Department of Civil and Environmental engineering. Dr. Johnson specializes in risk-related applications of machine learning and agent-based modeling. He holds a Ph.D. in Environmental Engineering from Vanderbilt University and graduated summa cum laude from the Georgia Institute of Technology with a B.S. in Industrial and Systems Engineering

Hiba Baroud

Hiba Baroud, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor in Vanderbilt’s Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and the Littlejohn Dean’s Faculty Fellow. Dr. Baroud specializes in using data analytics and statistical methods to measure and analyze the risk, reliability, and resilience of critical infrastructure systems. She holds a Ph.D. in Industrial and Systems Engineering from the University of Oklahoma and a Master of Mathematics from the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science at the University of Waterloo.

Craig Philip

Craig Philip, Ph.D., is a Research Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Vanderbilt University. Dr. Philip’s research focus includes infrastructure sustainability and the application of risk management tools to transportation systems, carrier safety management, and transport policy and regulation with a particular focus on Maritime Systems. Prior to joining Vanderbilt, Dr. Philip spent 35 years in the rail, intermodal and maritime industries, and served as President and CEO of Ingram Barge Company, the largest U.S. marine transport carrier.

Mark Abkowitz

Mark Abkowitz, Ph.D., is a Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Professor of Engineering Management at Vanderbilt University. Dr. Abkowitz specializes in enterprise risk assessment, management and communication, and assessing the impacts of extreme weather on community and infrastructure resilience. He currently serves as Chair of the National Academy of Sciences Transportation Research Board Committee on Climate Change and Extreme Weather Adaptation and Co-Chair of the Organizing Committee for the International Conference on Resilience to Natural Hazards and Extreme Weather Events.